Tottenham Transfer News: Stats show Spurs are right to sign Dominic Solanke
Alejo Veliz's loan move to Espanyol could have greater ramifications in the final knockings of the transfer window than some may realise. Tottenham's decision to allow the Argentine depart for the Spanish outfit leaves them short of attacking options. Veliz struggled for game time following injury with Sevilla in the second half of last season but the hope is he'll garner more minutes in 2024/25.
Depending on who you believe, Spurs are expected to add to their squad in the coming days and weeks. Some suggest they are waiting to pull the trigger on three deals. The priority remains the same, though - a new striker. Spurs tried to fill the Harry Kane-shaped void on the frontline with Son Heung-Min and Richarlison last season but the duo struggled to have the desired impact. The former is far better from the left, while the latter's injury issues was a hindrance.
As one might expect, the north London side have been linked with a host of forwards. From Viktor Gyokeres, to Lois Openda, to Santiago Gimenez, yet none have made the move to the capital, with the only new additions coming in the form of Archie Gray and Yang Min-hyuk, the South Korean teenager linking up with the Premier League powerhouse in January.
As the minutes tick by, however, Spurs are closing in on a frontman. Dominic Solanke is believed to be the preferred target, but reports on Thursday suggest that the capital side are still keeping tabs on Ivan Toney. The duo may not be the star strikers that some supporters may crave but the star in Ange Postecoglu's system is, well, the system itself.
'Ange-ball' proved an early hit with supports as Spurs made an unbeaten start to life under the Australian however the failure to land a goalscoring frontman saw them fail to secure a top-four finish. Spurs, after all, were the lowest goalscorers in the top seven, netting 74 times despite ending the campaign fourth for shots per game (15.4), big chances created (90) and key passes per game (12.1).
An xG underperformance of 4.15 may not have been the worst in the division yet certainly left room for improvement. With that in mind, a more consistent finisher should be the priority for Spurs rather than whether they can get a better deal for one or the other. On goals alone, Solanke wipes the floor with Toney having scored 19 times to the latter's four in the Premier League last season.
Of course, Toney was suspended until mid-January, which will have impacted his overall performances in front of goal. Even so, Solanke ended the campaign with a more commendable 0.5 goals per 90 compared to the Brentford man's 0.2. The Bournemouth hitman was also the more prolific, landing a conversion rate of 17.4%, that a higher return than Toney (7.8%).
Having not played for months owing to his ban, a lack of match fitness will have had a negative effect on Toney's form in front of goal yet in turn; he ended the campaign on a 12-game goalless run. Solanke, meanwhile, never went more than three league games without scoring across the duration of the Premier League season. Factor in that Solanke underperformed his xG of 20.47 by just 1.47 - he scored the chances he was expected to score - while Toney underperformed his by 3.35. The Cherries man tucked away the chances he was expected to score, and that's all you can really ask for from the frontman.
The real clincher, though, comes in Solanke's hard work off the ball. Bournemouth returned just 44% possession in the Premier League last season, meaning they'd look to hit opponents on the break, and they did so effectively, developing a statistically calculated WhoScored strength of 'counter attacks' in the process.
This meant that Solanke was often required to sit a little deeper than a conventional number nine to ensure the Bournemouth weren't overwhelmed by opponents. Even so, Solanke won possession in the attacking third 29 times, that the third most of all centre forwards and 15th overall in the division. It's this hard work off the ball that will have appealed to a Spurs side that finished the season third for this metric (247) in England's top tier last term. Postecoglou wants his side to press high up the pitch to force turnovers in the final third, with Solanke willing to carry out this duty to a high standard.
The numbers, therefore, speak for themselves. Solanke may have a higher asking price than Toney, but it is easy to see why. Some supporters may not have had the 26-year-old high on their wishlist once it was clear Spurs would move for a striker yet he ticks the right boxes to succeed under Postecoglou. It's clear, then, that Spurs should be prioritisig Solanke over Toney as they seek to strengthen the attack.
