Arsenal stars Rice and White among Premier League’s xG overperformers
As we continue to look back on the 2023/24 Premier League season, we’ve compiled an ‘XI’ of the division’s biggest Expected Goals overperformers from the campaign. Included in the team are players from Arsenal, Burnley, Tottenham, Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest.
Ben White (Arsenal) - 2.6xG overperformance
Arsenal’s Ben White enjoyed the most productive league campaign of his senior career, netting four times as the Gunners ran Manchester City close for the Premier League title. Yet, given the chances White was presented, he was only expected to have scored once.
Dara O’Shea (Burnley) - 2.1xG overperformance
Despite Burnley’s relegation from the top-flight, Irish centre-back Dara O’Shea makes our XI, having overperformed his xG by more than two goals. The defender netted three times, yet wasn’t expected to have at all.
Micky van de Ven (Tottenham) - 2.2 xG overperformance
Joining O’Shea at centre-back is Tottenham’s Micky van de Ven, who also netted three goals from less than 1 xG. The Dutchman, found the net with just under half of his eight attempts on goal, a creditable return for the 23-year-old in his first Premier League campaign.
Rodri (Manchester City) - 3.5xG overperformance
Manchester City maestro Rodri recorded his best-ever individual Premier League campaign in terms of goal involvements, with eight goals and nine assists. The Spanish midfielder, though, was only expected to have netted four times, given the chances he was presented.
Declan Rice (Arsenal) - 3.2xG overperformance
Like Rodri, Arsenal’s Declan Rice had a spectacular season as part of a title-chasing midfield, having joined the Gunners from West Ham last summer. Rice enjoyed his most productive league season to date, scoring seven times from just 3.8 xG.
Michael Olise (Crystal Palace) - 3.8xG overperformance
Despite making just 14 Premier League starts in 2023/24, Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise racked up 16 goal involvements (10 goals, six assists). His expected goals total, though, sat at just over six.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea) - 4.1xG overperformance
Cole Palmer’s first full Premier League season turned out to be the story of the campaign, with the now Chelsea star involved in more goals than any other player in the division (33). Palmer netted 22 times from an expected total of 17.9, to return an xG overperformance of 4.1.
Phil Foden (Manchester City) - 7.7xG overperformance
Manchester City star Phil Foden ends the season as the Premier League’s biggest xG overperformer, having scored 19 goals from an expected total of just 11.2. Foden’s overperformance can be explained to an extent by his exceptional shooting ability; the 23-year-old scored more goals from outside of the box than any other player (6).
Callum Hudson-Odoi (Nottingham Forest) - 4.8xG overperformance
After departing Chelsea last summer, 23-year-old winger Callum Hudson-Odoi enjoyed a strong debut season with Nottingham Forest, where he scored eight goals and provided one assist. Hudson-Odoi’s goals came from an xG of just 3.2, meaning he overperformed by nearly five goals.
Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) - 4.9xG overperformance
Crystal Palace striker Jean-Philippe Mateta was arguably the story of the last few months of the Premier League season, with the Frenchman scoring 13 times in 13 games under new boss Oliver Glasner. Mateta ended the campaign with a personal-best 16 goals to his name, from an expected total of 11.1.
