Revealed: The Top Premier League XI based on Expected Goals
With the Premier League season over, WhoScored have taken a look at the highest xG XI using their Expected Goals model. Set up in a 3-5-2 formation, we run through those that had the highest XI in the respective position featuring stars from Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle and Brentford.
David Raya (Brentford) - 0.1 xG
Four goalkeepers provided a Premier League assist last season, but none scored a goal. According to WhoScored's Expected Goals model, Brentford's David Raya came the closest to scoring of shotstoppers in 2022/23, returning a 0.1 xG over the duration of the campaign. We know his long distribution is decent, but this is kicking it up a notch.
Fabian Schar (Newcastle) - 5.3 xG
Fabian Schar managed more shots than any Everton or Southampton player in the Premier League last season as the Swiss centre-back routinely chanced his luck. While he did score just the one league goal, Schar in theory should have had more having returned an xG of 5.3.
The first of two Arsenal players in the side, Gabriel hit the back of the net three times for the Gunners last season as Mikel Arteta's team exceeded expectations. However, as impressive as Gabriel's goal haul was for a centre-back, the fact is that should have been higher, with the Brazilian having garnered an xG of 4.7.
Ethan Pinnock (Brentford) - 3.4 xG
The second Brentford player in the XI rounds off the defence. Ethan Pinnock left it late to score his third league goal of the season, netting with five minutes to go in the Bees' 1-0 win over Manchester City on the final day of the campaign. With an xG of 3.4, Pinnock was pretty much par for course in front of goal.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) - 22.7 xG
Mohamed Salah was one of only two players to register double figures for both goals (19) and assists (12) in the Premier League last season, but his return for the former should have been higher. Indeed, Salah ended the campaign with a 22.7 xG, with the Egyptian one of the biggest underperformers in that regard.
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) - 8.8 xG
The first of two Manchester United players in this XI, Bruno Fernandes endured a fairly goalshy campaign by his usual high standards, but eight goals is still not to be scoffed at, nor is an xG return of 8.8. As such, Fernandes performed nigh-on what was expected given the chances presented.
Alexis Mac Allister (Brighton) - 11.4 xG
A star man in Brighton's top-six finish, Alexis Mac Allister won't be at the AMEX for much longer with a summer move to Liverpool supposedly in the pipeline. The 2022 World Cup winner ended the season with 10 league goals to his name, though six of those were penalties, which goes some way to explaining a lofty xG of 11.4.
Martin Odegaard (Arsenal) - 9.6 xG
Only Kevin De Bruyne (4) scored more goals from outside of the box than Martin Odegaard (3) in the Premier League last season with the Norwegian often trying his luck from range. As such, the Gunners skipper ended the campaign with a 9.6 xG return, yet outperformed that considerably having scored 15 times.
Marcus Rashford (Manchester United) - 17.6 xG
The second Manchester United player in the side features on the left flank. Marcus Rashford enjoyed a memorable campaign, and really hit his stride after the World Cup as he found the back of the net 17 times for Erik ten Hag's side. With an xG of 17.6, Rashford, like teammate Fernandes, neither overperformed nor underwhelmed.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City) - 30.6 xG
The Golden Boot winner features in attack after a debut campaign to remember. Erling Haaland scored at least six more goals (36) than any other player in the Premier League this season, and what's impressive yet is that he overperformed his xG by 5.4, ending the season with an xG of 30.6.
Harry Kane (Tottenham) - 22.0 xG
Joining Haaland on the frontline is his partner in the WhoScored Premier League team of the season. Harry Kane scored 30 league goals in 2022/23, which is a miracle given he played in such a disjointed Tottenham side. Remarkably still, Kane ended the campaign with an xG of 22.0... he shouldn't have gotten anywhere near 30 goals!
