Making Sense of Guardiola's Decision to Drop Joe Hart
After a fairly pedestrian 2-1 win over Sunderland on Saturday, the Guardiolafication of Manchester City goes on. Other than the use of the two full-backs to push into central midfield when in possession, and the deployment of Aleksandr Kolarov as a centre-back, the most striking aspect of the side sent out by Guardiola for his first Premier League game was the absence of Joe Hart. It came as no surprise when City were strongly linked on Sunday with a move for Barcelona’s Chile international goalkeeper, with reports in Spain suggesting personal terms have been agreed.
Although Hart had a poor summer, twice allowing shots low to his left to squirm through him at the Euros, the bigger issue for Guardiola seems to be his ability to pass the ball, operate as a sweeper keeper and initiate attacks from the back.
But just how bad is Hart with his feet? Last season his pass completion rate in the Premier League was 52.6%, That sounds terrible - finding his man only just over half the time, although it should be born in mind that that figure includes clattering the ball forward under pressure. It Premier League terms it isn’t to bad: seventh best of goalkeepers, in fact last season, behind Simon Mignolet (60.1%), Petr Cech, Tim Howard, Lukasz Fabianksi, David De Gea and Artur Boruc.
For a goalkeeper in England, then, Hart’s figures are reasonably good. But Guardiola demands rather more. Last season, at Bayern Munich, Manuel Neuer’s pass completion rate was 80.8%. That was the best in the league, but even the second best, Diego Benaglio of Wolfsburg, was up at 77.2%. In fact eight other goalkeepers in the Bundesliga had a better pass completion rate than Mignolet. Bravo was the best in Spain and Europe’s top five leagues with a remarkable 84.2%, followed by Juan Carlos of Rayo Vallecano, who completed 64.6%, with Keylor Navas third at 63.4%.
So why are Premier League goalkeepers so bad at passing? Perhaps the pace of the game in England means that they’re placed under pressure quicker. That, in turn, perhaps influences the length of pass played - and that is perhaps the biggest single explanation for the great disparity in passing statistics for goalkeepers. Of Bravo’s passes last season, 31.7% were long. 34% of Neuer’s were, while an astonishing 72.1% of Hart’s were.
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Not that that entirely exculpates Hart. His accuracy with long passes is much poorer than either Bravo or Hart. 52% of Bravo’s long passes found their target, 47% of Neuer’s did, but just 35% of Hart’s did. Again, perhaps, context is needed: it may be the case that Bravo and Neuer were under less pressure.
Either way, though, the point is that Guardiola has gone from a keeper who completed over 80% of his passes last season to one who barely completed half. Under Guardiola at Barcelona, Victor Valdes always averaged between 75 and 78% pass completion. In that regard, it’s entirely reasonable that Guardiola should seek a player closer to his template of what a goalkeeper should be.
Whether Willy Caballero is that player is another question, but his stats are intriguing for the light they shine on other issues. Against a Sunderland side that applied little pressure high up the pitch, Caballero completed 80% of passes - albeit with one early misplaced ball that presented possession to Duncan Watmore. Although the sample size is small, his two seasons at City have ended in pass-completion rates of 52.9% and 62.6%. At Malaga, meanwhile, in the season before moving to Manchester, he got as high as 62.1%, which offers some support to the theory that the environment of La Liga encourages a higher pass-completion than the Premier League.
It also suggests that Guardiola was right, that Caballero is better with his feet than Hart, and if his is to play the high line he favours, that is essential. Bravo, though, is in another league altogether.
Was Guardiola right to axe Joe Hart at the weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
God I can't really believe this guy @Johnathan Wilson. Never have I read an such bad football article in my whole life-in itself is quite achievement how low writer can. It looks this piece written amateur rather than professional writer. It becomes even more baffling that this @Johnathan Wilsone guy actually contributes to reputable newspapers like guardian. It very easy to dismiss his hilarous theory on why premier league gks are not so good with feet. "So why are Premier League goalkeepers so bad at passing? Perhaps the pace of the game in England means that they’re placed under pressure quicker." If this hypothesis is correct then why don't look at whoscored own database at two gks who played both in England other leagues right namely de gea(EPL and La Liga) and boruc(EPL and Serie A). Okay De Gea passing Stats for man utd from 2012-2016 (55.6%, 54.8.%, 55.7%, 64.1%, 56.9% & 57.9%) Artur Boruc passing stats for EPL rom 2011-2016 are (55.4%, 58.3%, 61.7%, 54% & 82.4%).
De Gea passing stats for La Liga/Atlectico Madrid for 2009-2011 season were(38.4% & 50.3%). Artur Boruc while passing stats for Serie A/Fiorentina were (48.8% & 46.7 %). David De aggregate passing stats for EPL is 57.5% whereas in La Liga his stats was 44.35 percent. In EPL De Gea passing stats improved by 13.15%=57.5-44.35. Boruc aggregate passing stats for EPL is 57.35%(62,36% if you include first game Bournemouth) and for Serie A it was 47.75%. So Boruc passing improved in EPL by 9.6%. It might be possible if I was Johnathan guy(thankfully I'm not) I would have reasoned that both "Serie A and La Liga goalkeepers at that were under more pressure quicker." lol Even a layman if he watches this stats taken from whoscored database would find out that this writer did not do even single research to make such bold claim.
His Man city become (even it just effing 4 games) amount to 64.4% found out by (60.6+52.9+80)/3. Omg Caballero passing actually improved playing epl by 8.02%. Yeah I had to count one game sunderland coz this guy had only 3 matches in entire life before the sunderland game. Well I have more theory why passing success rate of goalkeepers is bad in epl. It could be possible all those goalkeeper from Bundesliga or La Liga mentioned in this article are actually good with their feet and have noting to do with leauge they play in. All those goalkeepers who plying their trade epl were never good with their feet to begin with. I never remember cech being good with feet, no chelsea would really recall that. Even though Mignolet on stats very good with feet but ask liverpuldian they will you in your face how bad Mignolet is with his distribution. So much bad he is that actually gift opposition scoring chances with amazing passes.
Now let point out huge mistake number in this amateur article. "Although the sample size is small, his two seasons at City have ended in pass-completion rates of 52.9% and 62.6%. At Malaga, meanwhile, in the season before moving to Manchester, he got as high as 62.1%, which offers some support to the theory that the environment of La Liga encourages a higher pass-completion than the Premier League." Even though he himself admit that sample is small why would he conclude that La Liga encourages higher pass completion based on playing GRAND TOTAL 4 matches played for man city? Why would he self contradict himself. Last time we see De Gea has poor passing percentage in La Liga even in this claim on Caballero he is dead set wrong. Caballero aggregate passing rate in La Liga/Malga is 56.375% found out by (54.4+51.6+58.4+62.1)/4.
P.s I forgot about Thibaut Courtois his aggregate passing rate for La Liga/Atlectico Madrid was 50.4333333%. Whereas for EPL/Chelsea it was 49.075 %. So essesntially he poor with ball at his feet at both La Liga and EPL. Conclusion never in my life have seen writer who did not do reserach before writing horrible piece. Yeah ppl I was not lying that this guy contributes football article to Guardian and I have what on earth the editors of whoscored.com were doing when they allowed a riddled with mistakes and lies. Lies or made up facts out thin air like goalkeepers "placed under pressure quicker" in EPL than in Bundesliga and La Liga. Or how about "which offers some support to the theory that the environment of La Liga encourages a higher pass-completion than the Premier League." All of this been debunked by looking at the curious case of David De Gea, Willy Caballero and Thibaut Courtois. Nuff said. This absolutely a very bad bad bad bad article on football.
@Ffaris Atleti have not been a heavily possession-oriented team over the last few years despite their high league position so the goalkeeping stats for Courtois were never going to be that high. Furthermore, at Chelski Mourinho had eschewed the need for slow, patient possession at the back and has always been in favour of longer balls over the top in direct contrast to Guardiola. It is no surprise therefore to see are very tall man such as Courtois being favoured by Mourinho. The debate is predominantly about style and Guardiola has decided to implement his own character and philosophy on Man City at all costs. Even if that means selling experienced, big name players. What he probably hasn't properly factored in is the strange, frenetic nature of the EPL and the lack of adequate rest between matches and the absence of a winter break.
@Ffaris Bundesliga where not that many teams are employing "gegenpressing". Bayern have been one of the dominant sides for years and under Guardiola were enjoying even more possession than would have been normal for an elite team. Therefore, Neuer's statistics would be skewed in his favour even if he wasn't one of the best 'sweeper-keepers' to have ever donned goalkeeper gloves! The Spanish ethos of rondo is antithetical to the British philosophy of playing and it is full credit to Brendan Rodgers for attempting to introduce this style at Liverpool and persisting with a goalkeeper like Mignolet who does not find using his feet at all natural. The fact that Serie A has a slower pace does not necessarily imply that the goalkeeper passing statistics would be better; that was an error by Wilson to imply this. However, he would not be the only one to have that perception as fewer people have studied Serie A so feverishly as was commonplace during its hegemony over a decade ago.
@Ffaris You are correct to certain extent about misuse of statistics. I too was rather disappointed by Jonathan Wilson on reading this article. However he was clearly not making any effort to give an in depth analysis on a webpage that is probably only seen by 1000 people.... Ffaris you have also made errors by comparing statistics over time and then drawing inappropriate conclusions about De Gea and Caballero whilst ignoring significant confounders. You too have not taken into account the playing style of respective coaches, the UEFA coefficient of teams faced(i.e. the strength of opposition), number of top level teams faced, the actual distance of passes(rather than long vs short). De Gea was at infancy of his career in La Liga so relatively junior; it would be absurd for him not to have progressed whilst playing for a top level side like Man Utd. It is blindingly obvious that the pace of the game in the EPL is breakneck in comparison to La Liga and the only comparson is the Deutsch
whats more, the one too many bloopers he makes as a top keeper, is infinitely unacceptable. wonder why you left them out cos you can't you dont know about them. goalies should be be rescuing their teams (De Gea) not letting them down. Pep won't allow a blooper king scuttle his trophy chase. so arresting the situation early is best thing to do. think about this: is passing for a goalie beyond improvement?