WhoScored Tipster: Who Will Win the Most Glamorous of Europa Leagues?
The Europa League has been a hard sell for some time now. It's got to a point, in Europe's top leagues at least, that fans are often keen to avoid it, preferring instead to push for the more illustrious Champions League next time around.
Those in the privileged positions among Europe's elite have coined their lower class cousin ‘the Thursday night cup’ but for some it represents the pinnacle of what is realistically achievable. The majority of teams that will fight it out in the knockout stages will certainly not be undermining its value.
In fact, a look at this season's draw makes for undeniably impressive reading. Some of the ties on Thursday night perhaps even excite more than the likes of Basel vs Porto or, dare I say it, Schalke vs Real Madrid in the Champions League's round of 16. Meetings between Liverpool and Besiktas, Tottenham and Fiorentina, Wolfsburg and Sporting, Roma and Feyenoord, Celtic and Inter and PSV and Zenit in particular whet the appetite at such an early stage in the competition. Such encounters encourage of a competitive close to a tournament that has needed a surge of interest.
It makes picking a favourite to be the outright winner very tricky indeed. The biggest names in the competition will all have to come through tricky fixtures to even reach the round of 16. The first round of the knockout stages perhaps go a long way to revealing why Rafa Benitez's Napoli are favourites with some.
The Partenopei's match at Trabzonspor in the first leg remains an unenviable task however, especially when considering that Napoli lost in Switzerland against Young Boys and could only draw with Sparta Prague in the group stages. A trip to Turkey certainly won't be any easier, with much of the goalscoring burden now falling on Gonzalo Higuain now that the goals have dried up from former Real Madrid teammate Jose Callejon. The Argentine played just 185 minutes of the group stages but will surely play a greater part if Napoli are to progress.
It's their Serie A counterparts Roma who stand alone as the favourites with bet365 at 10/1, but one need only have watched Rudi Garcia's men for the last couple of months to know that they are far from their best right now. The same could be said of their opponents Feyenoord though, with Fred Rutten's men now 20 points adrift of the lead in the Eredivisie. Nevertheless, with just 1 win in 6 in Italy's top-flight and a defeat to fellow Europa League hopefuls Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia already this month, Roma's odds aren't as tempting as they would have been when the draw was made.
Teams that have dropped down from the Champions League are often favoured at this stage based on the assumption that they must be of higher quality than those that only managed a Europa League qualification but that doesn't always ring true. Of the previous four winners only Chelsea have been Champions League dropouts, so the likes of Roma's chances are by no means enhanced as a result. There hasn't actually been an Italian winner of the tournament since Parma - who look doomed at present - when it was still named the UEFA Cup back in 1999.
Five of the last nine winners, in fact, have been Spanish, with the holders Sevilla the victors on three of those occasions. With odds of 16/1 from bet365 a repeat of their back-to-back successes of 2005/06 and 2006/07 may be tempting but a tough encounter with Gladbach will again deter some punters. Indeed, only one team picked up a greater WhoScored.com rating in the group stages than the Bundesliga outfit (7.42), who were unbeaten, conceding just 4 times.
The one side that usurped Lucien Favre’s in the WhoScored.com ratings from the group stages were Salzburg (7.63), whose odds to win the tournament outright remain as high as 28/1. The loss of Kevin Kampl to Dortmund will hinder their chances significantly but it's the departure of Brazilian forward Alan, who, having scored 8 goals in the group stages - the tournament's highest rated player to date (9.04) - may be most sorely missed.
The only team to win more points than Salzburg (16) in the group stages were Dinamo Moscow, who came through an admittedly favourable group with a perfect record. At 40/1 their odds are incredibly high, and they are among a number of teams whose chances seem significantly greater than the odds suggest. PSV (50/1) are another, after a disappointing group phase saw them drawn against Andre Villas-Boas' Zenit, but Philipp Cocu's men, inspired by the incredibly impressive Memphis Depay - with 18 goals across 23 appearances in the league and Europa League - have ended Ajax's stranglehold over the Eredivisie in emphatic fashion to win each of their last 10 league matches.
If you fancy an English winner than Liverpool are the favourites among the Premier League contingent, unsurprisingly so after an impressive run of form that has seen them go unbeaten in 90 minutes in their last 16 matches in all competitions. However, a meeting with Besiktas, who top the Turkish Super Lig and have proven very capable opposition to North London rivals Arsenal and Spurs already this season, is certainly not favourable. Tottenham have an equally tough task against an in-form Fiorentina outfit, who travel to White Hart Lane tonight looking to protect an unbeaten run of 9 matches away from home in Europe.
That leaves us with Everton, who could perhaps be criticised for putting too much weight on the competition to date, if that is indeed possible. The Toffees have had a torrid domestic campaign but twice beat Wolfsburg to top what was the hardest group on paper. Their odds (18/1), despite earning a tie against the weakest opposition of the three in Young Boys, are longest of the English sides remaining (18/1), and significantly higher than an impressive Wolfsburg side (12/1) led by the superb Kevin De Bruyne, who secured an excellent rating of 8.01 in the group stages.
Whoever you decide to back, and it's a tough decision, the names mentioned in this piece perhaps go to show that this is the most glamorous edition of the Europa League since its makeover in 2009.
Who is your money on to win this season's Europa League? Let us know in the comments below
Mighty Legia is going for the trophy ;-)
Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg can win this year the Europa League ! Dost-De Bruyne - Schurrle are the best trio in EPL.
Now that the winner directly qualifies for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, the motivation among the clubs who haven´t play UCL for a long time must be huge. So I´d bet for such a club to win it, therefore my favorites are Everton (no participation in UCL since 1971) and Moenchengladbach (no participation in UCL since 1978).
Villareal
guingamp
Villarreal
Wolfsburg, Napoli, Roma, Zenith, Liverpool, Spurs, Everton, Villarreal, Sevilla are favorites for me. Wolfsburg won't be focused on EL too much. Napoli and Roma will continue their fight in SerA, they don't need EL. Villarreal and Sevilla know how to play two-leg fixtures. Zenith SPB have all fine in the League, so AVB could try to win EL once more to satisfy his self-esteem. Spurs and Liverpool have enough squad depth to fight on both fronts. The question is will they be focused on PL or EL. 4-6 weeks later, I think one of them will eliminate from EL due to PL focus. Everton, I'd call them a dark horse, because they failed to do everything in PL and can throw all the forces to EL. They are still very strong side. I can try to predict last 4 (not taking into account possible factor of draw) Spurs/Liverpool, Zenith, Sevilla, Roma.