A weekend to savour in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Match day 6 in Serie A, where Juventus and Roma - the two title favourites - go head-to-head in Turin. Similar was supposed to happen in Ligue 1, but Monaco have fallen from grace, allowing Marcelo Biela’s Marseille to step up. Finally, it could be a day Arsenal fans will want to forget quickly. Losing at Stamford Bridge - falling 9 points behind Chelsea in the process - would surely be the final nail in the coffin that is there title ambitions.
LIKELY BETS
Chelsea vs Arsenal: HOME WIN @ 1.65
Chelsea and Diego Costa are in fine form at the moment and seem to be too good to be stopped. Arsenal have failed to win any of their last 5 league meetings with the Blues, both home and away, and Arsène Wenger has a lengthy injury list to contend with. Danny Welbeck is impressing, which Gary Cahill and John Terry need to be wary of, but that could be overshadowed by the nightmare 90 minutes that Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker could endure against Costa. According to WhoScored, Arsenal have only one statistically calculated weakness dubbed 'Very Weak' - 'Defending counter attacks' - which could prove fatal on Sunday.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.75
Paderborn's fairytale start to the season appears to be over, but Bayer Leverkusen's Champions League involvement should help make for an open, free flowing game of football. Bayer, though, should find it easy to score against a defence that conceded 6 goals in last 2 games, after keeping a clean sheet in their previous 3.
PSG vs Monaco: HOME WIN @ 1.49
Victory over Barcelona gifted Laurent Blanc a stay of execution. This can be extended following Monaco’s lengthy trip back from Russia, so Leonardo Jardim’s side may be fatigued heading into this one. Monaco are limited at the moment and will struggle to create any real chances against PSG. Their task will be made harder if Zlatan Ibrahimovic is available. WhoScored lists ‘Creating chances through individual skill’ as a strength and they should have enough about them to secure a home win.
TEMPTING BETS
Juventus vs Roma: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.86
Last year Roma had all the ingredients to spring a surprise in Turin, but they left with a 3-0 defeat after putting in a naive defensive performance. There is no doubt that this time around Rudi Garcia will keep that experience in mind when preparing his team, though even at the Etihad Stadium - in their most difficult game in the last 9 months - the Giallorossi tried to be proactive for the whole game.
Allegri, after receiving some unfair criticism for playing for a draw in Madrid, will go for the win here, looking a 13th consecutive victory (4 off an Italian record). Juve remain without Barzagli; Roma have no Castan, Astori or De Rossi. Lichtsteiner has caused problems this season when getting forwards and Ashley Cole might suffer as he has not performed quite up to his high standards so far in Rome.
At the other end of the pitch, Chiellini has struggled of late when left one-on-one with quick opponents, so Gervinho could have some luck there. Roma's main strength according to WhoScored is creating chances using through balls, but at the same time the WhoScored Match Forecast asserts that it is 'Likely' that Juventus will create many scoring chances.
Fiorentina vs Inter: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.66
Fiorentina are having trouble finding finding the net, still without the injured Giuseppe Rossi and Mario Gomez, while Inter are struggling for consistency in their results. Moreover, Europa League duties will have an effect, especially considering the limited number of options available to Walter Mazzarri. Last but not least, if Kovacic's injury is confirmed for Inter, then they will find it extremely difficult to build-up anything in terms of attacking moves.
Valencia vs Atlético Madrid: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.61
A late win against Juventus will have drained a lot of stamina from Simeone's men, so they will be even more compact than usual. Combining Valencia's 3 home games and Atlético's 3 away games in La Liga this season, only 2 goals have been conceded, so this could be a low-scoring affair.
LONG-SHOT BETS
Hull City vs Crystal Palace: Over 3.5 goals @ 3.62
The second worst home defence faces the second worst away at the KC Stadium. Crystal Palace have seen over 3.5 goals scored in 3 of their last 5 league games, with that stat even better for Hull, with over 3.5 goals in each their last 4 matches in all competitions. Meanwhile, WhoScored's team characteristics list 6 different weaknesses in terms of defending for both sides.
Liverpool vs WBA: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.27
In the exact opposite of the previous game West Bromwich hold the joint-best away defensive record, and have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away league games. Meanwhile Liverpool's home record currently sees them with an average of 1 goal scored and 1 goal conceded in the league per game.
Celta Vigo vs Villarreal: Draw @ 3.20
Celta Vigo are the real underdog in La Liga at the moment, sitting 6th and level on points with Real Madrid, just one place ahead of Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine are still unbeaten away from El Madrigal WhoScored's match forecast predicts that it is 'extremely likely' that Villarreal 'will make a comeback if they go behind'.
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