Team Focus: The Stats Behind Liverpool's Successful Formation Change

The turnaround in Liverpool’s form since the beginning of December has been remarkable. After 15 games, they lay ninth in the table with 21 points; since then they have climbed to sixth, taking 24 points from 11 games. In those first 15 games they scored and conceded 1.27 goals per game; in the 11 since they’ve scored 1.73 and conceded 0.91. Brendan Rodgers, quite rightly, has been hailed for the way he shifted formation, adapting to a highly unusual 3-4-2-1 - or 3-4-3 - formation.
 
Liverpool, essentially, pose opponents problems they are not used to solving. Most teams play with only one or two holding midfielders. If one, he is overmanned immediately. Even with two, though, there are problems. They are used to playing against a lone central creator, leaving wider players to the full-backs, but if those central creators pull wide, they are effectively compelled to follow them, leaving the back four exposed to a runner from the back of midfield, or to a central striker who has dropped deep, something at which the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling are highly adept.
 
The system works, that much is clear, although it’s possible that in time teams will start to work out a way to counter the system. Yet beyond the headlines, the statistics present a confusing picture. Liverpool actually have fewer shots per game in a 3-4-2-1 than they do in total, although the 3-4-2-1 offers more shots on target – an indication that they create a better class of chance.
 
They play fractionally more long passes in a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 - 58.1 to 58, but only 44.8% of them are accurate as opposed to 54.1% in other formations. They play fewer accurate and more inaccurate short passes. Like Manchester United, perhaps, they have come to value speed over accuracy, looking to win the ball back quickly and hit opponents before they have had time to resume their defensive shape.

Two major differences stand out between three at the back and the rest. The first is that in a 3-4-2-1, dribbles are up – by around 15.7%, which makes sense as Liverpool are playing increasingly through their two central creators with perhaps the odd scuttle from a wing-back.
 
Far more significant, though, is the drop in the number of crosses played. In a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3, Liverpool play 3.6 accurate crosses and 7.9 inaccurate crosses per game. In other formations, they’ve played 4.3 accurate crosses and 16.2 inaccurate crosses per game – a bafflingly high figure given the lack of an obvious central striker for much of that time.
 
The implication seems to be that the 3-4-2-1, while built for speed, encourages a more precise build-up, looking to use fast low forward passes rather than slinging the ball across the box. In part, of course, that’s because the width, coming from wing-backs rather than wingers, comes form deeper and so Liverpool get in crossing positions more rarely now than they did. They are creating more chances (12.7 to 10.7) and after getting the ball into the final third quickly, the creative process is then more measured.
 
Another difference is the decline in interceptions in the 3-4-2-1 - down from 12.5 to 11.9 in the new shape, while tackles have remained largely unchanged. Given that they are having less of the ball (52.5% possession compared to 56.2%) it is an intriguing shift, perhaps suggesting a greater urgency to win the ball back.
 
It’s early days yet, and it may be that counter-measures are developed, but Rodgers has done something fresh and exciting and his boldness as well as the results are to be commended.

What have you found most impressive about Liverpool since they changed formation? Let us know in the comments below