Is Sanchez Flores Following a Trend as Watford Decline Continues?

The reaction to the news that Watford are likely to replace Quique Sanchez Flores has been one of shock. After all, their aim at the beginning of the season was to avoid relegation, a job that was effectively done with four straight wins culminating in the 3-0 victory over Liverpool in the week before Christmas. Add in an FA Cup semi-final and Sanchez Flores has fairly clearly done a good job. There has been a slump recently, but most would happily dismiss that as the natural result of a slim squad feeling fatigue and perhaps losing a little focus in the league once the primary objective had been achieved. 

The alternative view is that once a slide like this has begun, it tends to continue into the next season and it’s best to act now, arresting the decline before it has become too serious and giving a new manager the summer to get used to his squad. If that line of thought is taken seriously, Alan Pardew may consider himself under pressure as well. 

For ease of analysis, let’s split the season into two halves. After 19 games, Watford had 29 points, but in the 15 since they’ve taken just 12. Crystal Palace’s slump is even worse: 31 points from the first 19 games of the season and eight points since. 

Since the Premier League became a 20-team league in 1995, there have been 20 previous occasions in which a team has been in the top half at the midway point of the season and has then taken at least 10 points fewer in the second half of the season. One of those, Blackpool in the 2010/11 season, were relegated. Of the other 19, only two - Stoke after a decline in the 2012/13 season and West Ham after a decline in 2000/01 - have improved their position the following season and both after changing manager, Mark Hughes replacing Tony Pulis at Stoke and Glenn Roeder replacing Harry Redknapp at West Ham. 

That begins to make it sound as though ousting Flores and Pardew is the only reasonable course of action, but the other 17 cases bear examination. Two followed the slump by staying in exactly the same position in the league - Bolton in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 campaigns and Sunderland in 1999/2000 and 2000/01. Both of them kept the same manager - Owen Coyle and Peter Reid respectively. 

But the season after that, Sunderland suffered another major slump, taking 26 points in the first half of the 2001/02 season and 14 in the second to finish 17th. Reid was sacked the following October, but the decline went on under Howard Wilkinson and Sunderland were relegated with what was at the time a record low of 19 points. 

Of the 19 teams to suffer this sort of slump and remain in the Premier League, six were relegated the following season. That again seems like a reason to take action sooner rather than later, but of those six sides to go down only two - Hull under Phil Brown and Middlesbrough under Bryan Robson - kept the same manager. In fact of the 19 sides in question, only eight kept their manager throughout. The cases of Reid and Coyle have already been mentioned, but Charlton under Alan Curbishley only dropped from 11th in the 2004/05 season to 13th in 2005/06 and Fulham under Chris Coleman only dropped from ninth in the 2003/04 campaign to 13th in 2004/05 - neither of which can really be considered a failure. 

The evidence, in other words, is mixed, statistics, as so often, requiring context. Really, the issue is what has caused the slump. Is it simply that injuries, suspensions and weariness have caught up with a small squad, or have the players lost faith in the manager. Sunderland and Stoke have both had spells when it was almost a conscious policy to start quick, get points on the board and try to cling on - Sunderland have now switched to almost exactly the opposite pattern - but there are cases, most obviously perhaps that of Brown at Hull, when the relationship between players and manager has deteriorated beyond repair. 

There’s been no obvious sign of discontent at either Watford or Palace, but equally the basic fact is that poor form seems to beget poor form. The concern is understandable.

Should Watford stick with Flores or relieve the Spaniard of his duties this summer? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below