League Focus: Five Premier League Musings this Christmas

Can Leicester win the league?

No doubt the shock of the season so far is that of Leicester City, with a success story greater than any demise in our books. Having spent last Christmas drowning their sorrows at the bottom of the league Foxes fans have reason for cheer and then some this time around.

Leading the team to the top of the table, Claudio Ranieri has answered his own critics and those who felt Leicester were destined for the drop. There were many. Here is a side defying not only the odds but the numbers, so one might assume they are a statisticians nightmare. Well we at WhoScored are loving Leicester right now! There is more than one way to skin a cat after all.

Leicester have no qualms in ceding possession to their opponents - only West Brom and Sunderland have averaged a lower share (43.6%) - but they are direct and devastating when they do win it back. What this side does possess - if not always the ball - perhaps more than any other is a superb balance. They have energy in midfield, trickery and end product from the flanks and a striker in formidable form.

The one thing most likely to let Leicester down in this frankly astonishing title challenge - and it must be considered as such - is their defensive record. No side in the top half have conceded more goals and it’s not necessarily the playing style that has caused these issues. Netting in every game, they’re simply outscoring opponents right now, with the rare and refreshing approach that a clean sheet isn’t the first priority. If Vardy and Mahrez stop scoring - or worse get injured - it’s tough to imagine the goals will continue to flow so freely, but here’s hoping they keep firing on all cylinders. If they do Leicester will certainly be in the running.

Are Chelsea better off without Mourinho?

There are many opinions on this subject, but while a number of the Chelsea players’ attitudes can undoubtedly be called into question, a manager has to work with what he’s got. Unfortunately for ’The Special One’ and his adoring blue faithful, to say he was struggling in that regard is a massive understatement.

It’s ultimately a manager’s job to motivate his players, including the ones that you just wish weren’t there. Under Mourinho Chelsea would have needed wholesale changes in the playing squad and it’s far easier from an owner’s perspective to simply change the manager. He will always be the fall guy and having led the club to the title last year Mourinho has fallen from an incredible height.

In that respect it was best for both the club and Mourinho to go their separate ways. A win over a Sunderland side that showed very little defensive resolve is no great shakes, Chelsea aren’t back, but it was a result and more pertinently a performance that was far less likely under their now ex-manager.

It’s now up to the returning Guus Hiddink to secure a respectable finish and there’s no getting past the fact that this is a free hit for the Dutchman to restore a reputation somewhat tarnished since his last stint at the Stamford Bridge helm. At Christmas last year Chelsea had lost 8 fewer games, conceded less than half the number of goals (13) and picked up 24 more points. They will be better after Christmas. My neck feels safe on that line.

Will Manchester United ever be fun again?

Seemingly not if Louis van Gaal has anything to do with it. While the Dutchman claims the club have made progress having reached the dizzy heights of the fourth round of the Capital One Cup before an exit at the hands of Middlesbrough, United are unquestionably worse now than they were at this stage last year. Not only is that based on the turgid football the fans are being forced to endure but the fact that they are 3 points worse off than last season. That despite spending just shy of £100m in the summer, and no, we’re not talking about net spend.

Of that money close to £40m has been warming the bench on more than the odd occasion this season, with Memphis failing to live up to the prodigal son billing and Morgan Schneiderlin becoming this season’s Ander Herrera in being bafflingly overlooked by his manager. Meanwhile Wayne Rooney has only ever missed out due to injury despite an awful campaign by his standards, while the likes of Januzaj, Hernandez and James Wilson were among those considered incapable of aiding the cause this season.

The fact is, however, that while Chicarito may have scored 11 league goals for Leverkusen this season he would have had little hope of managing half that tally (an impossible 5.5 goals) in this United side. Fourteen sides - including their weekend victors Norwich - have fired off more shots than Van Gaal’s men this season, and all despite topping the possession charts (57.4%).

Stubborn to the last, their manager shows no sign of attempting to adapt despite being so successful last summer in doing just that with the Dutch national side. United are averaging 73.8 passes per chance created. That’s over 20 more than any other side this season, over 25 more than during Moyes’ much-maligned reign and almost 30 more than Ferguson’s last campaign, in which the team were already considered to be on the wane.

Could they do a Chelsea and go interim - give it Giggsy til the end of the season - or go all in now for a certain Jose Mourinho. The latter seems increasingly likely. Sticking with Van Gaal seems increasingly foolish, even if only for a matter of weeks, and his departure only seems inevitable.

Is this Aston Villa side the worst in Premier League history?

These are dark days for Aston Villa. Most thought that Derby’s points haul of 11 in the 2007/08 season would never be replicated. The Rams had the same number of points on the board at Christmas as Villa do now, albeit from one more game. The main difference between that Derby side and Remi Garde’s band of un-merry men is that Villa aren’t really a whipping boy. They’ve conceded 31 goals to the 41 their fellow Midlanders’ had shipped at this stage and only really suffered one heavy defeat.

The concern for Villa is that while their is quality within their ranks to rival the admittedly modest abilities of the teams around them, this particular squad seems both physically and mentally weaker than before.

While a draw at Newcastle was taken as a positive by their new manager, that was perhaps more down to the fact that they salvaged a point from a losing position for only the second time all season. It was a game that, made more pivotal by results earlier in the day on Saturday, Aston Villa desperately needed to win. Most seem to be suggesting that picking up a point against a team above them in the league is a good result for Villa, somehow forgetting that every team is above them in the league.

For the majority of statistics Villa are middling in the Premier League, be that for shots conceded, possession, pass accuracy or tackles, while they rank second in both interceptions (20.3) and dribbles (11.8). Crucially, however, no side have scored fewer goals (14) and only three have conceded more. They lack conviction at either end. Nevertheless, while new recruits and a Christmas miracle may be required for Villa to beat the drop, this squad is unlikely to 'do a Derby' and fail to win for the rest of the season.

Why so strange?

There’s no getting past the fact that this Premier League season must rank among the most bizarre in history. The four points leading up to this have played a pivotal role in as much but across the board there have been odd goings on.

Leicester, Palace, Watford and Bournemouth are four of the six teams to pick up more than 10 points since the start of November. In their six matches over that period Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United have all managed just two wins respectively. There is no fear factor in the Premier League, or if there is it seems to have all been passed on to Aston Villa.

Only 10 teams have picked up more points at home this season than on the road, where 15 had more at Christmas in 2014. This time last season only six teams had picked up more than 10 points away from home while twice as many have managed that feat in the current campaign. That again ties into the sense that very few sides are travelling to away grounds and feeling like they have little to no chance of upsetting the odds.

There can be no definitive answer as to whether that is down in larger part to the league’s big hitters swinging lazier punches or the fact that the lightweights of the top-flight have been given more financial clout. Both are undoubtedly true to some degree and intelligent scouting has had a huge part to play in the real success stories of this season in the form of Leicester and Watford, while the big clubs have struggled to get value for money as things stand.

It would be a huge shock if the second half of the season was anywhere near as strange as the first but this has been a season full of shocks. If the Premier League has lacked great quality this season - and it has - it’s certainly not been lacking in entertainment value, and here’s hoping the latter continues after Christmas!

What would be your answers to the above questions? Let us know in the comments below