Assessing the value of PFA Player of the Year candidates

With a third of the Premier League season to play we’re approaching awards season, with the bookies already set on an outright favourite to be named PFA Player of the Year.

That’s despite this season perhaps seeing fewer glaringly obvious candidates than most in recent memory, with Tottenham’s Son Heung-Min the latest to be tipped to come into contention.

The South Korea international scored his tenth league goal of the season at the weekend to earn Tottenham all three points against Newcastle, though there is one big reason why the Spurs forward may fall short.

Overlooking the fact that the 26-year-old didn’t actually enjoy a productive start to the campaign, dropping in and out of the side as a result, Son has started just 14 of 25 Premier League matches for Tottenham. He didn’t open his account for the season until late November, so if the award was decided over the past three months he’d certainly be a front runner. That said, long term memory isn’t always applied in such decisions, so approaching the nominations in such form weighs in the forward’s favour.

Son’s WhoScored.com rating of 7.39 is enough to rank eighth in the division, rising to fifth (7.71) when excluding substitute appearances, so with odds ranging from 7 to 66/1 he’s worth an outside bet at the latter price but certainly not the former.

Another long shot as far as some bookies are concerned, if Manchester City were to leapfrog Liverpool and retain the title there would be a real chance for Fernandinho to take the crown. The Brazilian, at 33, remains absolutely pivotal to Pep Guardiola’s side, and his absence in defeats to Crystal Palace and Leicester would likely play in his favour, emphasising his importance to the club’s title defence.

The midfielder has averaged an increased 2.2 tackles per 90 to help protect the defence but his passing in the attacking phase is often overlooked and he’s been taking a few more risks in that regard this season. His key passes are up and three assists is already enough to match his total from the previous campaign, but it remains his knowhow and tenacity out of possession that has made Fernandinho arguably City’s most valuable player.

If there was another player to stake a claim for that title this season, that man would be Raheem Sterling, and the England international is rightly considered among the favourites for the award, albeit at a lengthy 15/1 price. The 24-year-old hasn’t scored at the same rate as last season but his role has adapted a little to become the man laying on clear scoring chances rather than finishing them.

An average of 2.1 shots per 90 is way down on 3 from last season, while key passes (2.4 from 1.9) and dribbles (2.9 from 2.2) have risen substantially. Returns of ten goals and eight assists are still superb figures from 22 league appearances and his WhoScored.com rating (7.68) has improved from last season to rank second in the league.

Should Liverpool cling onto top spot, Mohamed Salah will no doubt be in the top three for the Player of the Year award as he bids win the top gong for successive seasons. The Egyptian may not have hit the same heights as last season but he’s still had a direct hand in more goals than any other player (23) and on course to win the Golden Boot once more.

However, if the Reds do win their first ever Premier League title, it will take some doing to beat Virgil van Dijk to the top prize. The Dutchman is the odds on favourite to claim the individual accolade having had an astonishing impact on Liverpool’s defensive record since his arrival at Anfield.

The 27-year-old is the highest rated defender in England’s top-flight this season (7.34) and now very much considered among the best centre-backs in the world. Simply put, there is no weakness to Van Dijk’s game for opponents to attempt to exploit.

The former Southampton star is dominant in the air, winning 75 per cent of his duels this season, but his size doesn’t hamper his mobility across the ground. Remarkably the Netherlands international is still yet to be dribbled past in the Premier League all season when attempting a tackle.

It’s clear that if Liverpool win the title it will be down to their vastly improved defensive record, and while the arrival of Alisson has played a big part, Van Dijk’s influence would be the difference in the race for the Premier League crown.