It's the French showdown - Le Classique - where the tactically astute Marcelo Bielsa takes his Marseille side to the French capital to face off against Laurent Blanc’s star-studded PSG. There is another game that could have had the same billing, but Liverpool’s current form means it would sound ridiculous to compare them with league leaders Chelsea.
LIKELY BETS
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace: OVER 2.5 GOALS @1.53
Louis van Gaal surely cannot fail to pick up a much-needed 3 points here, but the odds on a United win are too low. However, there is value in the over 2.5 Goals market, which is understandable considering there were at least 3 goals scored in 4 Manchester United’s 5 home games and 4 of Crystal Palace's 5 away games this season. Goals are expected to be the order of the day when looking at the respective WhoScored strengths and weaknesses of each team. Each of Manchester United’s 3 weaknesses and 5 of Crystal Palace’s 6 weaknesses are focused on defence.
Cagliari vs Genoa: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.61
Zdenek Zeman could be dubbed the ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ of managers. The Czech appears to have gone against his principles of all out attacking football, but entertainment is still guaranteed. It's a meeting between the team with the third worst home defence against the team with the third best away attack in Serie A. The WhoScored Match Forecast suggests it is 'Likely' that Cagliari 'will make a comeback if they go behind'.
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: OVER 1.5 GOALS IN FIRST HALF @1.61
With Madrid currently in scintillating form, it is difficult to find decent odds on anything in their favour. However, at least 2 goals have been scored by either team in the first half in 4 of Madrid’s last in 5 games in all competitions, with the same happening in 4 of Rayo's last 5 away matches. The WhoScored Match Forecast lists 5 different ways Real Madrid will score.
TEMPTING BETS
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz: OVER 3.5 GOALS @2.25
There is usually a goal fest at the BayArena, and it's a theme that Mainz will be happy to contribute to, as stressed by the fact that 3 of their last 5 away games have ended with over 3.5 goals scored; a record matched by Leverkusen at home. Moreover, once again the WhoScored match forecast predicts the home side will 'likely' make a comeback if they go behind.
Sampdoria vs Milan: HOME WIN @2.60
The defeat versus Palermo was the lowest point of Inzaghi's spell, and the poor showing can be compared to some of the terrible performances during Allegri's reign. There couldn't be a worse moment to travel to Marassi, meeting a Sampdoria side full of confidence, tactically very well organised by Mihajlovic and looking far sharper than the Rossoneri. The enthusiasm of the Tifosi Blucerchiati is really contagious at their ground, and should be an efficient weapon to test Milan's shaky self-esteem. Samp are third at the moment, and winning this would prove that it's no coincidence.
Augsburg vs Paderborn: OVER 2.5 GOALS @1.80
Another Bundesliga bet concerning goals, we're counting on Paderborn's characteristics and record in particular here. Three of their last 4 games have ended with over 2.5 goals scored thanks to their main strength; the ability to 'creating many scoring chances' according to the WhoScored's database. Paired with the record of their defence, the 6th worst overall in spite of their 7th placed standing in the table, there should be goals at either end in Augsburg.
LONG-SHOT BETS
PSG vs Olympique Marseille: DRAW @3.75
Le Classique c'est fantastique. Imagine what would happen to Bielsa's aura, and Blanc's job, if OM could win at the Parc des Princes. It's no outlandish thought either, and it's incredible to consider it a concrete possibility if only to compare the two teams at the end of last season. The task is even harder for El Loco though, as he won't have his best player, André Ayew, through suspension. PSG, meanwhile, will be carrying the weight of stress from the tricky game versus Apoel.
Lately, for the Parisians, it's not been that easy to find the net, especially at home. In 2 of their last 3 league home games they weren't able to score more than once, with 2 draws in that run. Even in midweek against the Cypriots they scored only once. Bielsa will never renounce his offensive style, regardless of who will be absent, where they play or the opponent. This could leave space for PSG, but they will struggle to cope with the intensity of Marseille. There is one thing dominating the WhoScored match forecast: that PSG are 'extremely likely' to make a comeback if they go behind. The 3-3-3-1 of Marseille could drive Blanc's defence mad, and there's a real danger that Maxwell could lose the plot against Thauvin. However, if Lucas Moura has one of those days where he can undo the backline, Cavani could have lot of fun. Last hint. Don't forget the history between these two: PSG have won all of their last 6 home fixtures against Marseille, the longest streak in the history of their head-to-head record, so this might end pretty soon…
Liverpool vs Chelsea: DRAW @3.40
If Rodgers' strategy to rest 7 players doesn't pay off, there could be a lot to answer for from Brendan. The Slovenian factor is at least on his side, as in the end the game in Maribor was way more stressful than expected for Chelsea. Moreover, Liverpool are entering the game with the feeling that a defeat would effectively serve as a death sentence to their feint title aspirations, while all in all it would be pretty acceptable for the Blues to leave Merseyside with a draw.
There are only 2 weaknesses listed by WhoScored's database for Chelsea, but one of those regards protecting the lead. Liverpool's defence will need to be alert across the pitch, but the mismatch of Alberto Moreno vs Willian might break the balance. However, at the other end there is Balotelli, who is far from reliable, but facing Cahill could boost his confidence, and all in all what a story it would be if Mario could turn into Mourinho's nemesis…
Almeria vs Barcelona: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @3.40
Things have changed at Barcelona, with not so many goals pouring out from the Blaugrana, at least for the moment. Therefore picking a result involving under 2.5 goals in Almeria is far from outrageous, especially if we consider that as much has happened in 3 of Barça's 5 away games and in 4 of the 5 at home for Almeria.
What are your top tips for the weekend's games? Let us know in the comments below
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