The Key Questions Ahead of the 2016/17 Premier League Season
Last season concluded with the most unpredictable champions in history being crowned, but this one may well begin as the most unpredictable Premier League campaign in modern times, if for entirely different reasons. The high-profile new managers bring a series of high-tension variables, where small details could have significant effects. Who will adjust to the league fastest? Who will most quickly drill a team to their ideas? Who will realise the need for a host of signings?
Every side has its own individual issues, and it only adds to the enticing nature of this season that none of these big managers have their teams close to a perfect shape, but there are still a few bigger questions likely to condition the campaign as a whole…
Will Pep Guardiola be able to apply his football?
Given how much he was pursued, given how much he has achieved in contrast to everyone else, and given how much Manchester City are willing to spend to back, it does feel the destination of the title will be mainly decided by one issue. If Guardiola can apply the football that has so far made him the most successful manager in the modern game, he will once more win a league at the first time of asking. It’s just that is by no means a given.
This is not to get into another tiresome debate about the best league in the world, but it is true that there is less of a gap between Premier League teams than there are between those in Spain and then Germany, making it more of a steady gradient, and meaning it can be more of a slog from week to week. Consider one figure: in Guardiola’s time as a manager, his average possession per season has been 65.8%. In that time, the highest in the Premier League was 58.8%, and the average high has been 57.3%. Either the new league is going to force him to adapt and potentially drag the Catalan down, or Guardiola is going to impose his style, and thereby soar above everyone.
Is Jose Mourinho still the manager he used to be, in order to restore Manchester United to the level they used to be at?
Last season might have been the first proper failure of the Portuguese’s career, and the first time since 2002 he even finished outside the top three of a league, but the extreme nature of the collapse means it’s impossible not to ask whether he remains as impressive as a manager; whether the aura is gone. There might have been many caveats and arguments as to what it happened, but what was most troubling was how Mourinho struggled to even instill his most basic standards.
By the time of his mid-December sacking, Chelsea had conceded 26 goals in 18 games, a porous record out of kilter with his entire career. That raises questions over whether he can implement the competitive baseline he has become renowned for, and that also happens to be the quality United most require. Both manager and club need to restore their auras.
Can Paul Pogba ever be worth that kind of money - or is he set to blow the Premier League away?
It’s the type of mega-deal the English top division has generally surrendered to Spain, but thereby brings a lot of pressure on the 23-year-old. If you’re only looking at a fee that high, too, then it might just be impossible for Pogba to justify it - through no fault of his own. He merely fits the specific type of midfielder that Mourinho wanted, so United felt him worth paying for. But this is also the thing.
If Pogba does more than just fit into the system, and is actually released by it, then he could offer an impact that the Premier League has been missing from a player of his status for some time. He certainly has a rare physical impetus, as reflected by the fact he was the Serie A midfield player who made the most dribbles last season at 2.9. His specific qualities could yet lift United, and lift them to the top.
Does Antonio Conte have enough players suited to his style?
Italy’s relentless pressing game was one of the revelations of Euro 2016, and the limitations of the squad only emphasised how brilliant Conte is, but the key was also how he got players to buy into it. Will that be enough at Chelsea? The Italian favours two hard-running central midfielders, but the squad so far only has one, and that was a player he bought in N’Golo Kante. The lack of European football gives Conte even more time to instill his ideas, but he may yet have to introduce more quality.
Can Jurgen Klopp’s head start bring a head of steam?
In the much-hyped build-up to the new season, the German has justifiably been named as one of the new core of star managers, even though he has already been in the Liverpool job 10 months. That stretch, however, could be key in such a congested campaign. Most of the Liverpool players already know his system, he knows who is suited to his game and has bought accordingly, and this summer has been all about fine-tuning.
The famous aggression of an approach that brought the highest tackles per game in the Premier League last season, at 22.9, could be given a far-reaching focus. It isn’t inconceivable that Liverpool develop an early lead. The question will be over whether they can sustain it, although the lack of European football can help.
Have Arsenal done enough to prevent the normally predictable stagnation?
So far, Arsenal’s summer has merely continued the feel of last season. Even though they came second, their highest finish since 2005, it still felt so hollow and not exactly indicative of a surge. Similarly, even though they have signed the highly talented Granit Xhaka, it still feels like the kind of indulgent signing that only cosmetically improves the team and does not tackle the issues they really need solving. Arsene Wenger needs a striker and, after another summer of injuries, a defender. They have so far barely moved in a close season that has seen all the competition look to make leaps forward.
Is there any way last season’s champions and main challengers can get to the same level?
As sensational as Leicester City’s title win was, and as encouraging as Tottenham Hotspur’s future looked in their late-season surge, it’s impossible to deny both were someway facilitated by a more forgiving Premier League. Even if they keep doing everything they did last season - Leicester offering the most interceptions (21.6) per game in the division, Tottenham Hotspur the most shots on target (6.6) per game - will it have the same effect?
Who do you think will come out on top in the Premier League this season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
As for who I consider favourites- Chelsea. They will almost certainly sign more players (a CB and F), have a superb midfield and probably an on-form Hazard. They also do not have the distraction of midweek Europa games. I fancy Utd the least tbh. Their defence will be better, defence is Mourinho's strength but there will be a square peg in a round hole in midfield unless Jose has Schneiderlin sitting and Pogba and Mkhitaryan roaming- something which seems unlikely given his conservative tactics. So far Zlatan has scored a scuffed overhead kick in a friendly and piggy-backed a CB for a header. I remember how great Shevchenko looked preseason for Chelsea. We all know how that turned out. I wouldn't expect an almost 35-year old to be consistent in a league 10x more difficult than the one he has played in for the last 4 seasons, especially without a winter break. I'll predict Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Utd, Spurs, Liverpool to make up the top 6. Arsenal unfortunately wont contest the title.
@SteveHyland As for United, Mkhitaryan will definitely play out wide, probably on the right at start. Rooney will play number 10 but I'd rather see Mata there, although playing Rooney might cost them at some point which I consider as a good thing for us. Pogba could play box-to-box midfielder which could hinder his attacking abilities but is still considered to improve the squad. Zlatan may face toughest season for a long time but if he stays fit I'd see him scoring around 20 goals or more. A challenge for Mourinho is to get this new United to work differently as his style will differ a lot from Van Gaal's, and to convince new signings - especially Ibra and Pogba - to work for the team instead of shining individually as they'd used to. Pep have probably little easier job to convert his side of keeping the ball as City are used to that, but on the other hand he requires his team to play precisely as he wants, starting from pressing and passing which could take some time to master.
@Castle- Mkhitaryan out wide in the prem is suicide imo which is why I assume he'll play as a CM in a 3 but given the licence to move into space(s) he finds- which is really the best way he can affect a game. I would love him to line up against Monreal when we play each other, especially given Alexis will probably play on that side too. It will prove more fruitful against lesser LBs but Mkhitaryan only looks half dangerous, for me, when he moves into the space a #10 would usually occupy. He & Pogba either side of Schneiderlin would work if Morgan is allowed to play how he did at Soton. That will mean Rooney is benched though and that looks unlikely. Pogba doing 50% defending compared to the 25% he should is bad news for the Utd faithful. I like Zlatan but he has only scored 20+ goals in a season twice other than for PSG- both in the Serie A. I don't see him scoring more than 15 unless he takes penalties- which I'm sure Utd will get a lot of. :-p
@SteveHyland I couldn't disagree more with you about Chelsea. Conte is fantastic manager as he's proved that in Juve and Italy's national team, but also Van Gaal lead Netherlands third in 2014 WC and then failed at United. Chelsea's attack looks good and midfield is solid too as they probably look to field 4-4-2/4-2-4/4-2-3-1 formation, although I guess 3-5-2 and 4-3-3 are also possible. In any case, the problem is their defense. Conte's team often requires a high defensive line and center backs covering much ground and everybody knows Terry and Cahill aren't capable of that. Zouma isn't an answer either and Ivanovic has declined vastly over past 18 months or so. It's likely center backs and midfielders are required to cover for him instead of he covering for slow center backs. Only Azpiliqueta is good enough for them as they need at least two world class center backs. If they do that, I'd include them to title race but otherwise I don't see them finish even in top 6.
@Castle- I don't think there is a "Conte" formation per se. He has used 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-2-4, 4-1-4-1 over the last few years for club and country as well as in preseason for Chelsea. It has been the central midfielders who have done the running around while the defenders stay put (similar to Italy in the Euros in that regard) in preseason. It hasn't looked good playing a 4-2-4 tbh so if he wants to go with 2 up top then 3-5-2 is the way to go- which will negate the lack of CB pace. In any case, Conte is one of the more astute managers around. If he sees his CBs struggling with his system, he will change it. We wont have the same situation as we see with Wenger having Arsenal defend too high season after season despite it proving our downfall on many an occasion. Signing a CB is a caveat to Chelsea being favourites for the title as is sorting the striking situation out but I'm sure Chelsea will spend big before the transfer window shuts.
City may have the most possession because it's part of Pep's gameplan and we're in an era where dominance of possession doesn't equal a win 60% of the time. There wont be cases of having 75% against the big teams like he enjoyed with Barcelona and Bayern unless their opponents sit back and look to counter (the best way of playing against Pep's teams which resulted in wins for Arsenal and Atletico Madrid against Bayern last season). Also, it's pretty hard to not dominate when you have the best midfield in the world (Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets and Thiago, Alonso, Vidal). If we have Cazorla, Xhaka and Oezil has our midfield trio then we will have the best midfield in the league in terms of dominance potential but we rarely keep the ball for the sake of it. He will also find City don't get the same level of 'respect' as Barcelona do in La Liga and Bayern do in the Bundesliga- Atletico & BMG aside. I'm sure he'll be surprised at the disparity in passion of the EPL bottom 10 teams vs Liga/DBL.
Pep will not be getting anything like that possession here. Man City emphatically does not have the players that can impose themselves on the other top teams in the league, good players no doubt, but not significantly better than their rivals, such as he had at Bayern. Maureen only lets 1 of his midfielders have any freedom (e.g. Hazard at Chelsea), so he'll have to convert Mkhitaryan and/or Pogba into a defensive midfielder. Conte will get a lot out of whatever dross he has. If you consider Xhaka as not an improvement, then by that standard, who has improved? Man City brought in some kids (Stones, Sane, Zinchenko, Moreno), a squad player in Nolito, and Gundogan to replace Toure. Liverpool added Mane, Wijnaldum and Karius, the jury is still out on all of them. Chelsea's only signing of note is Kante, so they've improved. Given the Glazers' blank cheque book, Maureen has spunked some £160M on players, it would be pretty hard *not* to improve any team with that kind of money.
@What4 Pep and Mou have done fine job so far by finding and getting right players for them; Gundogan, Nolito and Stones fit the team brilliantly and will adjust to Premier League given little time (Stones already knows it but has more to learn than other two). And boasting players like Aguero, de Bruyene and Silva, it's no wonder why many are backing City for title race. Mkhitaryan was perfect acquisition for United; he's hard working, creative and can dribble too. Zlatan looks to be at his prime and I don't see Pogba weakening the team either. I've had some doubts over Xhaka move but he seems to fit fine. He wasn't, however, the player we needed most as CB, forward and even new winger were more needed. And looking at how many players aren't fit yet, it's already looking bad for us. But season is long, Pep is new to the league and Manu could hit some troubles too, as Mou's first season has never been his strongest one really.
City has the best squad and the best coach, so they are clear favorites. Liverpool has one of the best coaches, but the squad isn´t as good as City´s, but they don´t have European matches, so I still think they have a chance. Tottenham has very good core of british players and a workaholic coach, which should be a successful combo and also he knows his players and they know him the longest, I´d still put them in a title race. The rest Chelsea, United, Arsenal & Leicester are not gonna be in a title race imo.
@espana- I'd actually say Conte is the best coach. Pep has always had great teams, hard to judge how great he really is. Conte on the other hand went up 5 steps in my estimation at the Euros. Italy having a shell of a team could very well have won it if not for that embarrassment of a penalty shootout against Germany. They looked better than France and Portugal throughout the competition. Liverpool are too hit-and-miss for me to believe they can put a title winning run together. A destructive 3-0 could easily be followed by an appalling 0-3. Tottenham I don't consider contenders because I don't see where they can improve from last season. Lloris, Walker, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Dembele, Eriksen and Kane were at their best. It's unrealistic to think they could improve. Dier should be more consistent and Alli could improve plus their squad is deeper but I don't think there will be the big jump needed from last season and you know the 2 Mancs & Chelsea will be considerably better.
@SteveHyland I agree that Tottenham were playing on their limits for some parts of the season but that doesn't necessary mean they can't aim for the title. They have improved steadily over past two seasons under Pochettino, their squad is very young and likes of Lamela, Eriksen, Kane and Rose have continued improving, not to mention Alli and Dier. I wouldn't draw big conclusions from preseason but they look ready for season at least. Unlike Chelsea, and Manchester teams, their not in transition at all but can continue were they left last season which could give them a head start. Actually, Guardian listed them 3rd in their previews, you should definitely check that out - there was some good look at Pochettino's work too - although I didn't fully agree with their predictions.
@Castle- But that is what I'm questioning- the constant improvement. Everybody hits their ceiling and I don't see the areas where players like Eriksen, Kane, Dembele and their CBs could improve which is REALISTIC. There isn't a sportsman in history who couldn't improve in some aspect but if it's not realistic or if it's a physical limitation then the odds of them improving are slim. Dier and Alli, the 2 I mentioned, should be more consistent. Rose & Walker wont improve their positioning under Pochettino. It would need a defensive manager to do that. Kane's limitations are physical but in any case, early 20s goals per season is great. It's also good to remember predictions for the season are done on the CURRENT squads. I'm predicting Spurs will finish 5th based on 3 more expected signings each for Arsenal and Chelsea. I'll revisit this page after the window shuts.
@espana I've been wondering why people are downplaying Tottenham's chances too. They've signed Jansen and Wanyama and so have more depth in their squad. But maybe it's good for them not to be considered among favorites as it saves them from some pressure which certainly cost them in last few games of last season. Liverpool looks promising as they look much more like Klopp's side. Mane move was important but I'm not sure how their defense will hold. But I can't agree with you about United and Arsenal who both definitely are set for title race. City is full of good players but Guardiola could still struggle if he tries to transform City too radically into his mold. Chelsea and Leicester could drop from the race at some points though.