Player Focus: Would Dost be Foolish to Swap Wolfsburg for Newcastle?
“Why would he go there?” countered Wolfsburg head coach Dieter Hecking to reports linking Bas Dost with Newcastle United. Why would one of Europe’s most prolific strikers last season trade in Champions League football with the second best team in Germany for a club that has become a graveyard for ambition under the greedy eye of Mike Ashley? He has a point.
It is clearly a subject that does not sit well with the Wolfsburg manager. “He can play next season in the Champions League with us,” he continued in an interview with German media outlet Wolfsburger Allgemeine. ”He will probably (play in the Champions League) neither in this nor in the next or the next year at Newcastle.”
The chances are that Newcastle will never embrace Champions League football until they see the back of their disconnected owner and having taken eight years to be part of a squad ready to tackle UEFA’s prize competition, it would come as a surprise for Dost to shelve those ambitions for a move to Tyneside.
That feeling is even more apparent when you consider what a hard fought journey it has been for Dost to get to this stage. The forward arrived at Wolfsburg from Heerenveen in 2012 as the Eredivisie top scorer with 32 goals, but like so many players that once dominated the Dutch league, he took his time before being able to make the sufficient adjustments required in order to make the step up to his new surroundings.
Dost only registered 12 league goals during his first two years at the Volkswagen Arena, missing most of the 2013/14 season through injury before eventually returning to find he had lost his place in the team to 35-year-old veteran Ivica Olic.
The 26-year-old had only started three league matches prior to the winter break last season and looked set to leave on loan before Hecking blocked his request. It’s extraordinary, perhaps even for him, that over the course of the next six months he would finish the campaign as one of the most prolific goalscorers on the continent.
In fact, only Lionel Messi (1.1) and Cristiano Ronaldo (1.4) averaged more goals per game than Dost (0.8) come the end of the season. The Dutchman was as influential in front of goal as Sergio Agüero, Diego Costa and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but he has incredibly only managed to draw official interest from Newcastle, which given their recent past, would seem like an ill-advised step for a striker that has only just returned to form, as Hecking justified.
Additionally, it has been reported that Newcastle have only turned their attentions to the Dutchman after failing to barter Queens Park Rangers down on their £15m valuation of Charlie Austin. Unbelievably, Dost was only Plan B for Newcastle, despite being one of the most potent strikers across the top 5 leagues in Europe, converting 37% of his attempts on goal last season.
Rather than chase the lights and the allure of the Premier League, it would be wise for Dost to weigh up the repercussions that could accompany any decision to swap Wolfsburg for a club treading water.
Dost would not only be chucking away his first shot at Champions League football, but he would also be significantly downgrading personnel by leaving the German club. The combination of Kevin De Bruyne and Dost was the most lethal in the Bundesliga last season and with Andre Schurrle also flanking the Dutchman, it seems inconceivable that he would give that up to play alongside the likes of Yoan Gouffran and Sammy Ameobi – that is of course if Wolfsburg can fend off any bids for De Bruyne this summer.
Furthermore, if that wasn’t reason enough to stay away from St. James Park then Dost may also consider his international colleague Luuk de Jong’s torturous six-month pit stop at the club. Now flourishing once more back in the Eredivisie, De Jong will look back at his brief spell in the North East as a bitter disappointment.
Dost should be wary of following a similar path, with both players having taken their careers from the Eredivisie to the Bundesliga, and if Newcastle mount a serious bid, Dost could follow De Jong to the club - although the Wolfsburg striker would hope for better fortunes.
The Magpies signed De Jong on loan from Borussia Mönchengladbach for the conclusion of the 2013/14 campaign, but the 24-year-old failed to score in any of his 12 league appearances and has since returned to his homeland where he has found his feet once again, with 20 goals in 32 appearances for PSV.
This isn’t to suggest that Dost would definitely struggle at Newcastle, but it is also worth pointing out that another Dutchman, Siem De Jong, is going through a similarly tough spell at the club at the moment. Unlike Dost and Luuk, the 26-year-old skipped the Bundesliga and headed straight for the Premier League last season following seven successful years at Ajax. However, injuries and poor form only saw the Dutchman make one start in the Premier League all season.
So why might a player of Dost’s ilk want to join an underwhelming Newcastle side? All the signs have so far suggested the striker should think otherwise, although if Dost is forward-thinking then Newcastle could actually supplement his rise to the top faster, providing him with a shortcut to greater riches.
The Ashley reign has been notorious for maximising profits - buying economically before selling players on for more. While Newcastle have gone backwards, some of its players have still managed to go onto greater things. Yohan Cabaye, for example, left for PSG, whereas Mathieu Debuchy moved on to Arsenal. Before that, José Enrique joined Liverpool and Spurs snapped up Sébastien Bassong.
Of course the counter argument to this is that Dost could still end up at a European conglomerate with a fine showing in the Champions League with Wolfsburg next season, but a strong precedent has already emerged at Newcastle illustrating players can still make it to the top of the game by succeeding in arguably the toughest league in the world.
At the end of the day, Dost’s decision will only highlight what sort of a player he is. Foolish or not, there could be benefits to both choices. Leave for Newcastle and it would be fair to assume he would view the move as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. However, to stay at Wolfsburg would seem the best option, and it would also repay the faith Hecking showed in him when he decided to keep him in December.
By all means, Dost may not even have a say in the matter. After all, Wolfsburg have already signed Gladbach forward Max Kruse this summer. Was he brought in as Dost’s replacement?
Should Dost consider a move to the Premier League with Newcastle? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
He should stay unless Wolfsburg get an absurd 30+ million offer. Most of his goal scoring numbers are skewed during that 2 month period where he played out of his mind. During this time, his scoring rate was higher than Messi's and Ronaldo's. So it is VERY unlikely that he can replicate this form. Also, as mentioned in the article, he was playing in front of one of the best #10s in the world right now, KDB! Were he to move elsewhere he might not have the same supply.
Oh and Charlie Austin would be foolish to join Newcastle too. He can do better, Crystal Palace perhaps, eh Alan?
Leaving for Newcastle would be foolish but if de Bruyne leaves Wolfsburg then if Dost can get a move to a more stable, perennial champions league club then he should take that in a heartbeat. I realise that isn't the question asked here though.
Anyone would be foolish to join Newcastle
The argument for going to Newcastle is even weaker than Wright suggests: Cabaye has been rotting at PSG,Debuchy it's hard to say because he's basically missed the entire season though injury and his long term place in the club is a bit under doubt, Enrique has been a flop at Liverpool, and who the hell is Bassong? The only reason he would move is for money, and as rich as VWolfsburg are, the new tv deal probably makes Newcastle richer.
@What4- Debuchy at right back and Bellerin right wing next season perhaps? Debuchy is a far better defender and Bellerin is a better attacker (and ridiculously fast). If you're to choose one to play at RB, Debuchy is the obvious choice but Bellerin did too well last year to be a bench warmer this. With Wenger's penchant of playing Sanchez on the left-wing, I can see a place for Hector in a primarily attacking role on the right. What do you think?
@What4 Oh, and it's clear Wolfsburg bought Kruse because their only other striker was Bendtner, and to rely on him as back-up would be laughing in the face of Fate. Kruse's arrival doesn't necessarily mean Dost is leaving.
@What4 well kruse did well with two striker formation in both freiburg and mochengladbach. But why would sign for Wolfsburg is beyond me. If anything mochengladbach itself is an exciting project and with support base and they decent war chest for signing as well.
@What4- As Arsenal fans, we know far well Bendtner is a 50-goal per season man. He's just biding his time. ;-)
well this is good arguement for him to stay. He could replicate even better season here. I hope everyone remebers how mario gomez was struggling in bayern druing his first year once he found feet he was among among person in the entire world who could match lionel messi and cristiano for scoring prowess of reaching 40 goals a year mark. The other fellow was Klass Jan Hunterlar who also had slow first season at schalke 04.
@Ffaris- I agree but there are differences between his situation and Gomez's. Firstly, Gomez proved he could score in the Bundesliga in his last 2 seasons at Stuttgart whereas Dost doesn't have that history (1 prolific season in the Eredivisie which isn't the same level as the German league). Secondly, Bayern were packed with attacking talent, so there was never the issue of whether Gomez would get the chances to score prolifically. If de Bruyne goes (as expected), Wolfsburg are thin of the ground of providers. It's conceivable Dost could have the same conversion rate as last season or even better, yet still not score as many goals due to lack of chances. Messi & Ronaldo are able to score as many as they do not just because they're great players. Both play with 3-4 other world class attackers, Messi has an insane conversion rate and Ronaldo is allowed to shoot from anywhere plus takes every free-kick and penalty not to mention both play in La Liga where it's considered rude to defend.
@SteveHyland nice analysis but im an avid follower of bundesliga and i know well he do well here in wolfsburg. Ppl are just overdoing de bruyne contribution. There many strong players in wolfsburg team with the like of arnold, hunt(yes the same guy who mentored de bruyne at werder bremen). Plus de bruyne is not going to leave just like stupid papers were saying abt reus, hummels, howedes or matip. Like i said the other who reached 40 goals mark was klass jan hunterlar a eredivise export who reached twice in his career at schalke 04. Schalke 04 is good team but it nowhere near good personel as bayern had. Yet he still reached 40 goals mark. By saying superior team contributed to Gomez tally is plainly disservice to his legacy. It thing abt bayern personnel is so true. Then why did Lewandowski, Mandzukic, Pizzaro and Makkay b4 that reached 40 goals mark. It simple Mario is plainly a super striker.
@Ffaris- You misunderstand. It's not that I'm saying Gomez is a poor striker who had to be given tap-ins by his team-mates in order to score- because he is a quality striker who scored good goals as well as simple ones. My point was that ANYBODY needs other quality players around them in order to hit big targets such as 40 goals scored in a single season. As for Huntelaar, he too was/is a quality striker but although Schalke didn't have the personnel Bayern did, Schalke as a TEAM provided Klaas with many goalscoring opportunities. Added to that was the fact his strike-rate in 2011/12 was far better than anything he produced before or since in a top league, just over 3 shots per goal when through his career he has been a goal every 5.5 shots striker. If Lewandowski was used correctly at Bayern, he would score 40 goals every season, I'm sure of it. Pep likes playing players out of position and changing their roles in the team though and it has cost him big games.