Unbeaten Sides Clash at Etihad with Villa Out for Revenge
While the red side of Manchester will be making the trip to Liverpool come Saturday, City are holding the fort and looking to protect their unbeaten run against a Villa side that can boast the same feat. However, while City's run has seen them drop just 2 points, Villa have drawn 5 matches, winning the other 2, and will be somewhat disappointed to have done so.
A decent start, sitting in 7th place in the league and one of just 4 unbeaten sides remaining, Villa have dropped some 'winnable' points after the fixture list was kind to Alex McLeish as he looked to win over the majority of a Villa support that needed convincing. A strong defence has been at the heart of their results thus far, while a couple of last season's numerous disappointing performers, including this season’s star man Gabby Agbonlahor, seem to have turned a corner under the new manager.
Villa are yet to face any of last season's top 6 and this weekend's game will certainly be a good indicator as to whether they can keep up with the pace of the European pack this term. With the likes of Silva and co. in fine form, the visitors may be making the trip to Eastlands at the right time with a reasonably fresh side in comparison to City's squad of internationals.
The ability to rotate his side will always be in Roberto Mancini's mind, though a couple of potential injuries up front could dictate his attacking line-up. Sergio Aguero and Mario Balotelli are both seen as doubts ahead of the game this Saturday, meaning Dzeko may have to play as a lone front man in the absence of the suspended Carlos Tevez.
Omens from Last Season
Villa will be looking to contain a rampant City side at the Etihad having conceded 7 goals in 2 games at Eastlands last season, failing to score in the process. The 4-0 defeat last December saw Balotelli steal the show up front with a hat-trick, and the Italian went on to score in the 3-0 FA Cup win over Villa later in the season.
The controversial forward is a doubt for the game after picking up a back injury on international duty which could be music to Villa defenders' ears ahead of the game. Edin Dzeko is likely to start as a lone front man in his place as he did in the last league fixture between the sides that saw Villa run out 1-0 winners, with Darren Bent netting a debut goal and the Bosnian firing a blank at the other end.
If Dzeko does start up front on his own, Villa may be confident of pulling off a similar result. The hosts contained and countered their big spending counterparts last term, keeping just 31% of the ball but limiting the away side to just 3 shots on target. Villa's tally of seven on target came from just 9 shots overall, proving extremely accurate on the day, while City were far from it, attempting 25 shots with many sailing high and wide.
Villa were actually far more involved in the 4-0 rout away from home on paper, with 50% of the possession on the day heralding 9 shots once again. They only conceded 13 shots but with 6 on target, 4 were scored and City were clinical.
A look at the player position map from the 4-0 win (above left) shows Villa's wingers, Downing (6) and Albrighton (12), looked to come inside, leaving gaps on the flanks. A far more balanced line-up (again 4-5-1) in the home game (above right), with Agbonlahor (11) and Albrighton (12) far wider, saw the hosts thwart City's attack and limit them to mostly audacious attempts while posing a greater threat on the attack.
Dominated Dzeko
At 6ft 4" Edin Dzeko stands as an imposing figure up front and is known for his prowess with his head when it comes to finishing. However, the Bosnian has been far less effective in the challenge, and in James Collins and Richard Dunne, faces one of the best defensive partnerships in the league this season in the air. Of all defenders to have challenged for more than 10 headers, both make the top 15 with Stoke's pairing of Shawcross and Woodgate the only partnership to top that.
In comparison, of strikers to have challenged for more than 10 headers, of which there are 13, Edin Dzeko is the worst in the league. He has come out on top just 19% of the time thus far compared to Dunne (67%) and Collins (61%). Therefore, the threat of Dzeko is unlikely to be City's main focus, instead getting the ball to the likes of Silva and Nasri, who will be watched closely by Villa's holding midfield duo of Petrov and Delph.
Player Focus: Stephen Warnock
One player who will look back on this game last season, as one to forget, is Villa left-back Stephen Warnock. The 29-year-old had a tough spell under Gerard Houllier on and off the pitch and the game against City -his 19th successive league start- proved to be his last under the Frenchman.
Ill discipline and a tendency to get beaten in the air was key to the defenders poor form and the former England international has certainly looked to improve in those areas under McLeish. The Scot has warned his players of punishments being introduced for ill discipline and Warnock has certainly heeded this warning.
Just 1 foul per game has come from a hefty 3.3 successful tackles a match, with the defender picking up 1 yellow card in his 7 appearances this season due to far greater timing in the tackle. Last term Warnock picked up a costly 8 yellow cards in his 19 league appearances, committing more fouls per game (1.2) than this season despite making fewer tackles per game (2.9).
Significantly the shortest of Villa's imposing back line, Warnock has been much improved in the air this season with a success rate of 71% (10/14) the best of any left-back in the league to have challenged for 10 headers or more. The figure is also the best of Villa's defence, above the likes of Collins (6ft 4"), Dunne (6ft 2") and Hutton (6ft 1") on the opposite flank.
Although Warnock has faced trickery this season from the likes of Seamus Coleman, Gabriel Obertan and Shaun Wright-Phillips, he is yet to face any one of the quality, or in the same vane of form, as September's Player of the Month David Silva, and may not again all season. The Spaniard continued his frightening league form on international duty to score twice in Spain's 3-1 win over Scotland, with Villa's Hutton and Bannan involved. Warnock can’t afford to be too pleased with himself and may need to step up another gear to deny him come this weekend.
