Guardiola must ditch back three or surrender title hopes

After years of trying to coax the Spaniard to the Etihad Stadium, Manchester City finally appointed Pep Guardiola earlier in the year and many tipped his team to secure Premier League glory at a canter. After all, the manager had won 21 titles in seven years with Barcelona and Bayern Munich prior to his appointment and, following a storming start to the season where they won their opening 10 competitive games, many expected Guardiola to add to that this term. 

Yet, it hasn’t gone quite according to plan for Guardiola and City. In the subsequent 15 matches, the team has four wins to their name. A six-match winless run on the back of the 3-1 win at Swansea is the longest of Guardiola’s managerial career and marked the start of what has been a testing time for the City boss. A 4-2 defeat at Leicester this past weekend compounded what has been a miserable run of form for a City side now seven points off top spot with 15 games played this season. 

The former Barcelona and Bayern boss is a man who has built his managerial career on a foundation of attacking principles. Very much a following of the teachings of the late, great Johan Cruyff, Guardiola favours total football. He demands his players adopt an attacking approach to sweep aside all before them, which rang true for Barcelona and Bayern. City, and specifically the Premier League, is unfamiliar territory for the new manager, however. 

“We are going to play the way I feel. I believe in the way I like to play, I am sorry,” Guardiola said on Tuesday afternoon and you have to respect a manager who sticks to his guns. That being said, a lack of adaptability to the opposition, in terms of approach rather than formation, is having an adverse effect on the team. It goes without saying that Guardiola has inherited a squad that is weaker than the teams he had at Barcelona and Bayern, which means results would dip somewhat. Yet, the staunch defence of his tactics and an unwillingness to compromise has seen City drop back in the race to secure the Premier League title. 

To put it bluntly, the players at his disposal are not good enough to help carry out the needs of the manager. Only Liverpool (20) have conceded more goals than City (19) of those in the top six, while Guardiola’s side have kept just two clean sheets in 15 Premier League games this season. What was clear at the end of last term was how much the defence needed strengthening, particularly when taking into account Vincent Kompany’s ongoing injury concerns. Granted, a ball playing centre-back was signed in the form of John Stones, but a lack of serious investment has the team faltering. All four senior full-backs are the wrong side of 30 and it shows. 

Leicester capitalised on this with ruthless efficiency, where Guardiola opted to deploy a back-three with only one recognised centre-back. As one might expect, City enjoyed a lion share of possession (78%) but this merely played into the Foxes’ hands. Guardiola’s side were torn apart in a stunning 20-minute furore and failed to properly recover as they struggled with Leicester’s directness. Claudio Ranieri’s team secured title glory by playing such a counter-attack style and that Guardiola failed to set his side up adequately highlights a tactical naivety or perhaps arrogance that the former midfielder has been criticised of at times in the past. 

Granted, Guardiola was forced to use Stones as the only recognised centre-back due to injuries and Nicolas Otamendi’s suspension, but a lack of leadership at the back was clear for all to see. At 22 years of age, Stones lacks the necessary experience to marshal a backline in a similar manner to Kompany and Leicester took advantage of this by forcing the young England international into his sixth error that has led to an opposition goal in the Premier League since the start of last season for Jamie Vardy’s hat-trick goal. 

It’s synonymous with a wider issue at the Etihad, with City committing eight errors that have led to an opposition shot in the Premier League this season; only West Ham and Crystal Palace (both 9) have committed more and the pair linger above the relegation zone. Playing such a system that Guardiola demands is always risky, but while he could often dominate opponents with Barcelona and Bayern, teams are quickly learning that if you press City high up the pitch, they are prone to committing mistakes. Tottenham’s high intensity in the 2-0 win earlier in the campaign set the standard and opponents have quickly followed suit. 

Opposing managers are aware that City will see more of the ball given Guardiola’s mantra - they have had more possession (61.2%) than any other Premier League team this term - and so are willing to allow them possession in the midfield third if they have managed to break the press designed to force them into errors. Teams may sit back to soak up the pressure, but City - particularly when compared to Barcelona and Bayern - currently lack the quality in personnel to break resolute opponents down. When their challengers did counter, meanwhile, the La Liga and Bundesliga side had sufficient defensive quality to ensure they weren’t caught short. City are a level, if not two or three, below Barcelona and Bayern in that regard. 

The team aren’t helped by Guardiola’s continued changes to the side - he’s already utilised six different formations in 15 league games this season, four of which have been with a back three with City failing to win any of those - meaning the players aren’t able to forge a real understanding with one another, as was painstakingly obvious at the weekend. Stones looked lost at the King Power Stadium and was often left isolated by those around him, which not only allowed the Leicester attackers a free run at Claudio Bravo’s goal, but will have left the youngster devoid of all confidence. That being said, the Chilean’s lacklustre start to life in England will have done little good to the side, both in terms of morale and defensive solidity. 

A shaky goalkeeper negatively affects the team and while Bravo is a commendable passer of the ball - his pass success rate is a respectable 74.5% this season - his shotstopping ability and command of his area has left a lot to be desired following his arrival from Barcelona. It’s highly unlikely, however, that Guardiola will completely overhaul his approach, and given his track record, who can blame him, but the Spaniard could do with helping his team and himself by coming to the realisation that his current City side aren’t as strong as the Barcelona and Bayern teams he had at his disposal. He doesn’t have to completely revamp his system, but rather make sufficient alterations in order to counter aggressive, direct opponents, which would go a long way to helping overcome the seven-point gap between themselves and Chelsea, starting tonight with the welcome of Watford.