Stats prove Messi, Ronaldo and Kane well short of Europe's clinical finishers
When it comes to football, goalscorers are the most precious of commodities, worth their weight in gold no matter what situation a team may find themselves in. It’s why they command the highest transfer fees, and why they are often the riskiest signings to make.
For sides lower down the rankings, conversion rate is imperative, and still among the greatest statistical indicators of finishing. After all, while the likes of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo benefit form playing in dominant sides, with plentiful chances to find the net, some aren’t so fortunate.
We take a look into the frequency of shots against the ruthlessness of a players finishing in a bid to find those that still maintain an outstanding conversion rate whilst firing off a high volume of attempts, and there’s no place for the aforementioned duo amongst the very best in that regard.
In this study we have excluded penalties from both shot and goal statistics due to the advantage spot kick takers hold over those that aren’t handed such duties, assessing the 58 players across Europe’s top five leagues to have netted at least ten times (again omitting penalties).
The graph below shows every player plotted by conversion rate (X) - ranging from 10% to 30% - and shot frequency (Y) - from 10 to 65 minutes per shot. The average of the 58 players was calculated (conversion = 18.74%, frequency = 30.5 mins) to split the players into four sections, with the bottom left portion consisting of those to place below both averages and top right those above the average for both, among the most frequent and clinical shooters.
The colours of the circles pertain to the league that said individual plays in, while the size is a representation of the number of goals scored.
The player with the lowest conversion of those analysed is Edin Dzeko (10.7%), who has required 131 shots excluding penalties in Serie A to score 14 goals. Only Lionel Messi (167), Harry Kane (162) and Cristiano Ronaldo (155) have fired off more attempts but all three have registered 20 league goals or more when excluding penalties.
The same players unsurprisingly shoot most often as a result, with Ronaldo in front - every 13.5 minutes - but none boast a particularly impressive conversion rate from said attempts, all well below the average.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, young Valencia forward Santi Mina boasts the best conversion rate having scored ten goals from just 34 shots (29.4%) in La Liga this season. Meanwhile, elsewhere in Spain Girona attacking midfielder Portu has also reached double figures (11) despite having only fired off a shot once every 64.8 minutes.
However, there are only 12 players to rank above the average for both categories of those analysed, most of whom are very close to one or the other.
Simone Zaza creeps in on both counts, much to the surprise of West Ham fans, while the likes of Nabil Fekir, Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mauro Icardi all boast impressive conversion rates and sit just above the frequency average. Elsewhere Sergio Aguero is a prolific shot taker and is just in excess of the conversion rate average, while Robert Lewandowski and Paulo Dybala boast very similar figures in both categories.
Luis Suarez is the first of four players well clear of the average in both departments, firing off a shot every 22.8 minutes whilst converting 20.8% of said attempts for 22 goals, while Ciro Immobile has bagged 20 in Serie A from 92 shots.
Edinson Cavani has had fewer attempts still (90) and converted 22 for an excellent 24.4% conversion rate, shooting every 24.8 minutes, but it’s Mohamed Salah that steals the limelight again.
The Egyptian has scored the most non-penalty goals this season, notching 28. That’s one more than closest rival Lionel Messi (27) from a total of 47 fewer attempts. The Liverpool forward still musters a shot at goal every 20.7 minutes but remains unerringly clinical and can therefore be considered Europe’s best finisher this season without much doubt.
