REVEALED: Who has the easiest title run-in out of Liverpool and Manchester City
Manchester City are back at the summit of the Premier League for the first time since the middle of December after beating Everton 2-0 on Wednesday night. Pep Guardiola’s side were as many as seven points behind Liverpool during that time but are now above the Reds on goal difference, albeit with one extra game played.
Liverpool, who have never won the Premier League, have shown signs of cracking in recent weeks. Jurgen Klopp’s side have drawn their last two matches and were arguably fortunate to come away with a point against both Leicester and West Ham. Having never previously dropped points against teams outside the top-six this season, they have done so in their last two outings.
Now that both teams are level on points, with Tottenham five points back, it gives us the perfect opportunity to assess the state of the title race. Using our unique rating system, we can calculate which side has the kinder set of remaining Premier League fixtures, using the home and away ratings of their opponents to produce an average.
As it happens, only Newcastle have a better run of fixtures to close the season than City and Liverpool. Neither side will face each other again this season, unless they meet later in the Champions League, but both still have to play Chelsea and Tottenham at home, as well as a trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United.
Liverpool have a game advantage over City to take back the initiative in the title race but it is away to a resurgent United on the weekend City contest the Carabao Cup final. Liverpool would have been extremely confident about that fixture eight weeks ago but a lot has changed since then and now United are a force under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. They have won nine of his first 10 games in charge and have beaten Arsenal and Tottenham in that time.
However, Liverpool may be back in front as early as this weekend. While they face Bournemouth at home, City host Chelsea 24 hours later. Pep Guardiola’s side will, however, be the favourites heading into Sunday’s match at the Etihad. Not only do City have the best WhoScored rating in Premier League home games this season (7.20), but only Paris Saint-Germain (7.29) can better it in Europe’s top five leagues.
Nevertheless, City will need to be at their best as it was Chelsea that inflicted their first league defeat of the campaign at the start of December. Guardiola’s side also looked weary against Everton in midweek and there will be no respite over the next two months. City are still involved in four competitions, while Liverpool only have the Premier League and Champions League to contend with. Guardiola has already conceded his side will drop points from now until the end of the season.
In terms of fixture difficulty in the Premier League, there is not much to separate City and Liverpool. The average WhoScored rating of Liverpool’s last 13 opponents is 6.71, helped by the fact they finish the campaign by facing three of the bottom five sides in their final four games. The average difficulty of those games is 6.65.
The average WhoScored rating of City’s last 12 opponents, by contrast, is 6.75, which may be explained by their final four league matches. While Liverpool are mainly against sides battling relegation, City still have to host Tottenham in that time and Mauricio Pochettino’s side have the best WhoScored rating in Premier League away matches this season (6.96).
City currently have the edge over Liverpool on goal difference and Guardiola has already predicted the title could come down to that this season. The fact that City are still active in two more competitions than Liverpool must also be factored and surely makes Klopp’s side slight favourites in the title race.
Liverpool also triumphed in 12 of the 13 reverse fixtures against the teams they have left to play in the Premier League, only slipping up away to Chelsea in September. City, meanwhile, suffered defeats earlier in the campaign against three of the sides they have left to play in the league (Chelsea, Leicester and Crystal Palace). It’s going to go down to the wire.
