Man City vs Man Utd Preview: Will City's dire run end in crunch Manchester Derby?

 

We’ve all been waiting for Manchester City to snap out of it - but slowly, very slowly, the question of "when" is turning to "if."

 

 

Because what if they don’t? What kind of a team are we looking at here? The 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest in early December turned out to be the exception, rather than the new rule, as they followed it up with a draw with Crystal Palace and a loss to Juventus. It’s one win in 10 for the reigning champions, with both performances and the underlying numbers painting a picture of drastic concern. 

 

Since the 2020/21 season began, City have conceded 2.0 or more xGA - Expected Goals Against - just 19 times; seven of those have come during this campaign alone, with six coming in succession across a run of games against AFC Bournemouth, Sporting CP, Brighton, Tottenham, Feyenoord and Liverpool. 

 

They were cut to ribbons on the counterattack by Juventus in midweek en-route to a 2-0 loss. The first goal, featuring two defensive errors in their own box, was bad; the second goal was even worse, as Weston McKennie sauntered from inside his own half to just outside the six-yard box, completely alone and unchecked, to finish off a move he started.  

 

Yawning chasms in midfield. Centre-backs performing opposite actions, creating gaps you could guide a cruise ship through. Individual errors happening left and right, by young - Josko Gvardiol - and old - Kyle Walker. And while Erling Haaland may stand there, arms aloft and looking aghast at what’s going on, he alone has missed 10 big chances since the beginning of this run. 

 

A Premier League table beginning on November 1st has City in 19th, level on points with Southampton in 20th, with a -5 goal difference. It is utterly bizarre to look at. 

 

 

When you’re in this sort of rut, the buildup to a big game can do one of two things for you: It can motivate you, make you determined to set things right; or it can further break you, as dread - rather than hope - kicks in. 

 

So with the Manchester Derby on the horizon, which will it be? 

 

There would have been hope the trip to Anfield early this month could stoke the fires of the old City, but instead they got shellacked; the 3.4 xGA that day was the most City have conceded since Opta began recording that statistic.  

 

United, clearly, are no Liverpool, but the fact they have so much speed on the counterattack has troubled Pep Guardiola even during the best of times - so what happens this weekend, during the worst of times?  

 

Rúben Amorim is yet to really get his teeth into his new side, but he has at least got the forwards working well in transition, with Amad Diallo surging from deep as a wing-back and the likes of Alejandro Garnacho, Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund all capable of doing real damage if space opens up.

 

 

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Add that to the fact Amorim has already managed against City this season, beating them 4-1 with Sporting CP just over a month ago, and he should know exactly where the pressure points in Pep’s team are. 

 

Besides, based on recent performances, that space opening up isn’t really an "if" is it? City have been porous in midfield and defence for months, so much so that United - while not in fantastic form themselves - stand a great chance of creating yet more problems for their neighbours… and perhaps even bank a standout victory for themselves.

Man City vs Man Utd Preview: Will City's dire run end in crunch Manchester Derby?