League Focus: The Battle to Beat the Drop in the Championship
The picture is about to become a lot clearer. Two points separate the bottom four teams in the Championship, four points the bottom five and nine points the bottom six, but with eight games to play in March this is moving month.
Being the Championship, there is always bound to be a major twist between now and May but all six sides battling relegation have had distinct problems through the season that need to be addressed if they are to survive.
Barnsley are propping up the table and although they are a mere two points from safety they must be considered the favourites to go down. They recorded a morale-boosting win over Millwall last Saturday week to narrow that gap from five but then went to Huddersfield and were torn apart last weekend.
Their next two games are daunting prospects as both Nottingham Forest and runaway leaders Leicester come to Oakwell on Saturday and Tuesday. They have a higher shot per game average than seven other sides but, apart from leading scorer Chris O’Grady (11 goals to date, with the next best on three), failing to convert those chances has been their downfall. Defensively, they concede almost four shots less per game than Yeovil but have conceded eight more goals.
Indeed Yeovil, who remarkably ended up taking a point from free-scoring Reading last Saturday despite having three players sent off (the second team to finish a game with eight-men this season after Blackpool had three dismissed at … Yeovil), were tipped to go down from the moment they won promotion.
They are unbeaten in four and have enjoyed a better recent run than any of the other five battling to stay up. Shane Duffy, the centre-half on loan from Everton, has been an inspirational figure and, as eluded to already, it is peculiar that a team that concedes almost 20 shots on average per game only has the fourth worst defensive record in the division.
They have had less of the ball than any other team and their home form (three wins from 16) is awful but in a budgetary sense they should not even be competing. It’s a credit to their hugely likeable manager Gary Johnson that they are still in with a shout.
Charlton occupy the last relegation place but have three games in hand on south London rivals, Millwall, who lie one point above them in safety. However, their FA Cup run could still become a hindrance, even if reaching the sixth round appears to have galvanised them. Their trip to The Den the weekend after next is crucial.
Losing Yann Kermorgant to Bournemouth (he scored a hat-trick versus Doncaster last weekend) was a blow because their problem has been goals. Defensively, they have done OK but a paltry return of 24 strikes from 30 games will cost them if they are to go down.
Millwall, meanwhile, look in a dire state. The predicted upturn after bringing Ian Holloway in to replace Steve Lomas has not materialised, with just one victory since he took over in early January. In many ways, they are the opposite of Charlton in that they cannot stop conceding - with 61 goals shipped, they have the second worst record in the entire Football League. And bringing Holloway in, a manager known for his gung-ho attacking style rather than defensive nous, has, so far, failed to pay off.
One moment that summed his style up was the recent game against Reading where Millwall ended up with four strikers on the pitch when a goal behind with Danny Shittu the lone defender. They lost 3-0. A trip to Derby awaits on Saturday but following that the games against Blackpool and Charlton are likely defining moments.
Doncaster sit another place higher in the table but have come out of a run of games against the bottom three with four points, having beaten Charlton, drawn with Barnsley and lost to Yeovil. They were hammered 5-0 by Bournemouth last weekend (perhaps Kermorgant was doing Charlton a favour?) and their run-in looks difficult with four of their last five games against teams pushing for promotion with a trip to Millwall, who are likely to be fighting for their own status, sandwiched in between.
Blackpool have an eight point cushion at the moment but are without a win in 16 games (their last victory came at home to Sheffield Wednesday in November) and they need to straighten up their act. They have managed only eight goals since their last victory and Tom Ince, their most creative player, is on loan at Crystal Palace from the fall-out of his dad’s sacking. Their next two games will tell us a lot: Bournemouth come to Bloomfield Road on Saturday before Millwall arrive on Tuesday. Four points would almost ensure safety, fail to win either and their fears will be far greater.
Above them, Bolton and Birmingham could yet be dragged into the mire but the former have earned seven points from the last nine, while Birmingham, despite having to face a QPR side desperate to halt their poor run next, have always looked a step ahead and should be clear of danger by the time April rolls around. By then, we should know at least one team destined for the drop and one that has clambered to safety.
Predicted to go down: Barnsley, Yeovil, Doncaster
Who do you think will be relegated from the Championship this season? Let us know in the comments below
