Five facts: Need to know numbers ahead of Aston Villa vs Arsenal
In what is a huge night in the context of the Premier League relegation battle, Aston Villa will be looking to better Watford's result against Manchester City when they host Arsenal in the late kick-off at Villa Park.
Dean Smith will know more about what his side must do to ensure their survival bid lasts until the final day of the season on Sunday, but given their position - three points off safety ahead of the action this Tuesday - the intention will remain the same. This is a match that Villa need a positive result out of, against an Arsenal side that have just beaten both Liverpool and Manchester City.
So what hopes of a home win, or even a draw, or will Arsenal's impressive progress continue? We've picked out five key facts worth considering ahead of tonight's game.
Don't be surprised if Villa take the lead... and then throw it away
The manner of the weekend's result and performance against Everton was a case of de ja vu for Dean Smith and the frustrated Villa fanbase. The strugglers competed with established Premier League opponents, taking a well earned lead, only to let said lead slip late on. The two points dropped at Goodison Park now mean that the Villans have dropped a whopping 21 points from winning positions, scoring first only to lose to the likes of Tottenham (twice), Liverpool, Chelsea and this week's opponents Arsenal along the way.
By contrast, the Gunners have made a habit of digging themselves out of a hole, showing impressive resilience and fight to salvage points from losing positions. Their most recent league win over champions Liverpool was a case in point, coming from behind to win, meaning they have won an impressive 18 points from losing positions this season. No wonder the WhoScored statistical match forecast deems it very likely that Arsenal will make a comeback if they go behind.
The hosts must end dismal top-flight run
While four points from the last six available is certainly evidence that Villa are prepared to battle for their Premier League status, they will be aiming to break a rotten record this week. You have to venture back to May 2015 to find the last time the Midlands outfit won back-to-back top-flight matches at Villa Park, doing so against their final opponents of this season in West Ham. 38 matches have been and gone in that time as they aim to follow up three points against Crystal Palace against another London club.
Arsenal tactical experiment finally paying off
It's fair to say this is a new look Arsenal in a very literal sense, with Mikel Arteta clearly using the break in proceedings to fine tune a new tactical approach. The Gunners have deployed a 3-4-3 formation to good effect in each of their last eight matches, winning six and losing just once, since suffering back-to-back post-lockdown defeats to Manchester City and Brighton.
The rookie coach's ideas were perhaps best evidenced in Arsenal's opener at Wembley at the weekend, playing their way out of an adimittedly lacklustre press as ten players had a touch of the ball in the build up to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's goal. It was Kieran Tierney's incisive pass that proved pivotal in said move, with the Scot's willingness to play forwards from the left of a back three crucial to Arteta's new approach.
Despite deploying eight different formations over the course of the season, Arteta's switch to a 3-4-3 has seen him acheive something Unai Emery could not in offering Arsenal a plan B. Of said eight formations, Arsenal have only recorded a win with two - doing so in nine of 20 matches in the previous 4-2-3-1 and now in the new system.
Villa must start second half strongly
If Aston Villa are to spring a surprise on home soil, there is a particular period of the game that they must look to exploit in terms of Arsenal's weakness away from home. The Gunners have a very disappointing on the road and can pinpoint the 15 minute period after half-time as a key factor. Of the 23 goals the Gunners have shipped in the league on their travels, eight (almost 35 per cent) have come between the 45th and 60th minutes. That's more than they have conceded in the entire first half of away matches this season, while Villa have netted five times themselves in that period at Villa Park.
Villa's misfiring forwards
The issue for the home side with regards to punishing any lapses in concentration as far as Arsenal's resolve is concerned is where will the goals come from? Top scorer Jack Grealish is now with a goal in 15 matches in all competitions, while the form of the side's strikers is even more concerning.
With Wesley injured and hardly setting the world alight beforehand, replacement Ally Samatta has really struggled since the return to action. Since scoring on his league debut with one of two shots on target against Bournemouth has failed to even test the opposition keeper in 11 league appearances, encompassing 716 minutes of action. Alternative Keinan Davis has shown greater ability to hold the ball up but is still yet to score a Premier League goal in his career.
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