Wilmots Needs to Find Right Attacking Blend for Belgium
Ahead of Monday night’s Euro 2016 opener with Italy in Lyon, the two ends of the pitch contrast like night and day for Belgium. Even if Marc Wilmots has the best centre-back partnership in England at his disposal in the shape of Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen - should he use them as a central pair which, pending injuries, is by no means a given - the coach has had to deal with a raft of fitness problems at the back in the lead-up to the tournament.
Up top, it’s a completely different story. Belgium have an embarrassment of riches, but have often looked like they’re still searching for the right blend. Finding that perfect match is more important than ever against the Azzurri, who may be diminished themselves in other areas of the pitch, notably due to the absences of Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti, but can still rely on their defence.
Since signing his deal to coach Chelsea, Antonio Conte has regularly - and erroneously - been described as a disciple of the three-man defence system. This is no truer than calling him a slave to a 4-2-4 system, which is what he had in mind when he arrived as Juventus coach in summer 2011. Conte is a tactical chameleon; morphing his ideas to best fit the players at his disposal and at the top of their form.
With this in mind, and even bearing in mind that he has gone into various friendly matches in 2016 with either three or four at the back, it would be a major surprise Conte set up in this match with anything other than the former. In a time when Italy have been wracked by uncertainty, the backline BBC of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini provides a considerable last line of defence, backed of course by the incomparable Gianluigi Buffon.
Juve shipped a miserly 20 goals in 38 Serie A games last season, despite missing Chiellini, who rated 7.08 on average, for a sizeable chunk of the season. After his stellar 2014/15 season, Bonucci confirmed that he is now the Italian champions’ - and national team’s - best defender, rating 7.12 over 35 league starts. Chiellini remains accomplished, having made 1.5 tackles and 2.3 interceptions per game, against Bonucci’s 1.1 and 2.3, while elder statesman Barzagli still makes 2.2 interceptions per game himself. The trio are smart and agile, as well as solid.
Romelu Lukaku is set to be tasked with spearheading the effort to break them down, which might not always have been the case. Michy Batshuayi, who hit 17 goals and added another nine assists in Marseille’s highly forgettable season, must have fancied his chances for a while, especially given his decisive cameo against the Italians in November’s 3-1 friendly win in Brussels. In a game much more even than the scoreline suggests, Batshuayi came on as substitute with 25 minutes to go and played a role in Kevin De Bruyne’s goal, before clinching the win with one of his own.
However Lukaku is, now, pretty much where every Premier League watcher would have expected him to be, at the front of the queue. His four goals in four friendly games leading up to the tournament look like sealing the deal, having been set on that run by his brother Jordan, who provided the cross for his goal in the March defeat to Portugal.
The 23-year-old has just come off a best-ever season in terms of goalscoring - 30 goals in all competitions, club and country included, with 18 in the Premier League alone - but his role with Les Diables Rouges will be a distinct one. Everything that Belgium’s centre-forward does must be about creating the space for De Bruyne and Eden Hazard to work their magic. So the more he can drag one or more of the centre-backs out to leave gaps in the middle - something that Batshuayi is capable of - the more chance there is of that happening.
It was something that Lukaku didn’t manage to do well in that November friendly. If we look at the player average position map for that game, we see De Bruyne, Hazard and Lukaku occupying overlapping areas in the centre, which goes some way towards explaining Belgium’s difficulties during the bulk of the game that night.
On that occasion, it must be added, they faced an Italy back four, though, so it’s not an entirely faithful comparison with the Euro opener in mind. It’s also worth considering the complementarity of Hazard and De Bruyne, a subject of some concern back home.
“It’s always been a debate,” said Hazard in Sunday’s pre-match press conference, “but we’re two players who understand each other well, and we can each make the difference for the team at any given moment.” Recent form suggests they can do just that, with Hazard out left in his Chelsea position and De Bruyne in the centre maybe the best fit. Yannick Carrasco, fresh from his goal in the Champions League final for Atlético Madrid, could happily stretch the game on the other side.
The star pair are also well rested in comparison with some of their peers in this tournament. De Bruyne missed more than two months before coming back to competition in fine form in early April (4 goals in 10 games), while Hazard hit four in the last five Premier League games of the season after sitting out six weeks after a long-standing hip problem.
Breaking down Italy will be a big test of their resurgence. “To have hopes is a great thing,” Wilmots said near the end of his press conference. “After the results that we’ve put together over the last four years, they (the fans) have got the right to hope.” The result against Italy will go a long way to deciding how far those dreams might stretch.
How do you think Belgium will fare when they face Italy on Monday night? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
